Neighborhood · Ranked #4,119 of 84,120 nationally

Downtown Lawrence Historic District Eviction Risk: High

Tract 25009251300 · Essex County, MA · pop 3,677 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

25009251300 is a census tract in the Downtown Lawrence Historic District area of Lawrence, MA. It scores 9/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,677. Against the Essex County average of 6.0, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 3.0 points.

Risk score

High

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 53% Stable renters 29% Owners 18%

Tract context

Occupied units1,248

Renter share81.5%

SVI overall0.99

Poverty rate25.6%

Median income$41,098

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Lawrence and the region

Centroid at 42.7008, -71.1716 · click any tract to drill in

Why Downtown Lawrence Historic District scores 9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Lawrence

6.8

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.5

State political climate

Massachusetts legislature & governorship

6.2

Economic stress

25.6% poverty · this tract

6.4

Supply constraint

$1,539 rent vs county FMR

2.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from Lawrence

8.2

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.2

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Lawrence

9.8

Housing court bias

Inherited from Lawrence

7.9

How Downtown Lawrence Historic District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 99

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

99%Socioeconomic
99%Household composition
94%Racial/ethnic minority
81%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Downtown Lawrence Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

38.8%Housing insecurity
25.4%Utility-shutoff threat
52.4%Food insecurity
56.2%SNAP enrollment
25.8%Transit barriers
27.9%No health insurance
20.8%Frequent mental distress
47.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Downtown Lawrence Historic District

The severe-burden share is 35%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Food insecurity runs 52.4% against 17.8% nationally. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.8/10.

Set annual rent against average income of $41,098 and the ratio lands at 45%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. 65% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Essex County average of 50.7%. This is renter territory: 81% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

Disability prevalence runs 47.5% against 31.5% nationally. On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.2/10. The poverty rate is 26%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Running hot, housing-court posture reads 7.9/10. Nationally it ranks #4,119 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.9/10.

Statewide the MA average is 6.2, so this tract runs 2.8 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $1,539, close to the Lawrence average.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 25009251300

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 25009251300?

Census tract 25009251300 in the Downtown Lawrence Historic District neighborhood scores 9/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 25009251300?

Median gross rent is $1,539/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 25009251300?

25.6% of residents in tract 25009251300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,677.

How socially vulnerable is tract 25009251300?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 99th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 99th, household 99th, minority 94th, housing 81th.

Is tract 25009251300 considered part of Downtown Lawrence Historic District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 25009251300 fall within Downtown Lawrence Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 25009251300 struggle to pay rent?

About 38.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 25.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 25009251300 compare to Lawrence overall?

Tract 25009251300 scores 9/10, higher than the parent city of Lawrence at 7.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lawrence eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lawrence

Top eight tracts in Lawrence ranked by composite eviction-risk score.