Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally
Arbor Terrace Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bel-Nor
Tract 29189212201 · St. Louis County, MO · pop 3,798 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
29189212201 is a census tract in the Arbor Terrace area of Northwoods, MO. It scores 5.2/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,798. The severe-burden share is 58%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14%
Stable renters 9%
Owners 77%
Tract context
Occupied units1,730
Renter share23.0%
SVI overall0.67
Poverty rate25.6%
Median income$40,807
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
84
th percentile
High
Within state
89
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bel-Nor and the region
Centroid at 38.7031, -90.2826 · click any tract to drill in
Why Arbor Terrace scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bel-Nor
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.2
State political climate
Missouri legislature & governorship
2.1
Economic stress
25.6% poverty · this tract
6.4
Supply constraint
$1,121 rent vs county FMR
4.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bel-Nor
9.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bel-Nor
5.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bel-Nor
9.1
How Arbor Terrace compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 67
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 71%Socioeconomic
- 57%Household composition
- 93%Racial/ethnic minority
- 38%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 24%Grade B
- 76%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 347Total filings 2020-21
- 4.5Avg monthly (observed)
- 3.9Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.15×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Southwest Oregon, OR as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Arbor Terrace. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 27.9%Housing insecurity
- 23.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 34.1%Food insecurity
- 33.8%SNAP enrollment
- 18.1%Transit barriers
- 11.6%No health insurance
- 19.0%Frequent mental distress
- 49.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Arbor Terrace
Cost burden runs 61% here against 42.0% across St. Louis County. The dominant input is rent-regulation exposure at 9.6/10.
Sitting well above the midpoint, housing-court posture reads 9.1/10. Set annual rent against average income of $40,807 and the ratio lands at 33%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.
Food insecurity runs 34.1% against 17.8% nationally. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.5/10.
Housing insecurity runs 27.9% against 14.2% nationally. The poverty rate is 26%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Against the St. Louis County average of 4.0, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.2 points.
In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. That is riskier than roughly 65% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 23% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 29189212201
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 29189212201?
Census tract 29189212201 in the Arbor Terrace neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 29189212201?
Median gross rent is $1,121/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 29189212201?
25.6% of residents in tract 29189212201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,798.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 29189212201?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 67th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 71th, household 57th, minority 93th, housing 38th.
Q5
Is tract 29189212201 considered part of Arbor Terrace?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 29189212201 fall within Arbor Terrace (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 29189212201 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.15× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings returned near baseline. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Southwest Oregon eviction laws, OR), 2020-2021.
Q7
What share of households in tract 29189212201 struggle to pay rent?
About 27.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 23.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 29189212201 compare to Bel-Nor overall?
Tract 29189212201 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Bel-Nor at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bel-Nor; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 29189212201 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Related