Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Arbor Terrace Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bel-Nor
Tract 29189213800 · St. Louis County, MO · pop 4,459 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
29189213800 is a census tract in the Arbor Terrace area of Velda City, MO. It scores 4.6/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,459 residents. Against St. Louis County at 42.0%, 56% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 26%
Stable renters 20%
Owners 54%
Tract context
Occupied units1,814
Renter share45.9%
SVI overall0.78
Poverty rate24.7%
Median income$41,346
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
69
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
78
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bel-Nor and the region
Centroid at 38.6902, -90.2876 · click any tract to drill in
Why Arbor Terrace scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bel-Nor
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.2
State political climate
Missouri legislature & governorship
2.1
Economic stress
24.7% poverty · this tract
6.2
Supply constraint
$1,109 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bel-Nor
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bel-Nor
1.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bel-Nor
1.9
How Arbor Terrace compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 78
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 84%Socioeconomic
- 82%Household composition
- 98%Racial/ethnic minority
- 32%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 43%Grade B
- 33%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 853Total filings over 8 yrs
- 13.56%Avg annual filing rate
- 13.2%Peak (2017)
- 122Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 8 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 597Total filings 2020-21
- 7.8Avg monthly (observed)
- 8.1Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.96×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Southwest Oregon, OR as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Arbor Terrace. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 30.6%Housing insecurity
- 25.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 36.5%Food insecurity
- 36.4%SNAP enrollment
- 19.5%Transit barriers
- 11.9%No health insurance
- 20.4%Frequent mental distress
- 47.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Arbor Terrace
Severe burden reaches 26%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Food insecurity runs 36.5% against 17.8% nationally.
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 8.5/10. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.5/10. Annualized rent equals 32% of average household income of $41,346, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.
Disability prevalence runs 47.6% against 31.5% nationally. On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.
The poverty rate is 25%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. The filing record is not thin: 853 evictions over 8 years of observation. Filings peaked in 2017 at 13.2% of renter households.
Average gross rent is $1,109, 9% below the Velda City average. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground B ("Still Desirable"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.
In a typical year about 13.6% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 53% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 29189213800
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 29189213800?
Census tract 29189213800 in the Arbor Terrace neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 29189213800?
Median gross rent is $1,109/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 29189213800?
24.7% of residents in tract 29189213800 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,459.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 29189213800?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 78th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 84th, household 82th, minority 98th, housing 32th.
Q5
Is tract 29189213800 considered part of Arbor Terrace?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 29189213800 fall within Arbor Terrace (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 29189213800?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 853 eviction filings across 8 validated years in tract 29189213800 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 13.56% of renter households, peaking at 13.2% in 2017. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 29189213800 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.96× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Southwest Oregon eviction laws, OR), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 29189213800 struggle to pay rent?
About 30.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 25.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 29189213800 compare to Bel-Nor overall?
Tract 29189213800 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Bel-Nor at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bel-Nor; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 29189213800 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Related