Neighborhood · Ranked #3,082 of 84,120 nationally

Theatre District Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

Tract 36029002502 · Erie County, NY · pop 1,895 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

36029002502 is a census tract in the Theatre District area of Buffalo, NY. It scores 9.3/10 for landlords. The severe-burden share is 36%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

9.3

High

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 39% Stable renters 28% Owners 33%

Tract context

Occupied units1,086

Renter share66.9%

SVI overall0.86

Poverty rate46.4%

Median income$25,972

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Buffalo and the region

Centroid at 42.8928, -78.8618 · click any tract to drill in

Why Theatre District scores 9.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Buffalo

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.7

State political climate

New York legislature & governorship

7.3

Economic stress

46.4% poverty · this tract

10.0

Supply constraint

$472 rent vs county FMR

1.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

8.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

How Theatre District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 86

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

86%Socioeconomic
79%Household composition
91%Racial/ethnic minority
64%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
57%Grade C
12%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Theatre District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

32.3%Housing insecurity
24.0%Utility-shutoff threat
40.4%Food insecurity
44.8%SNAP enrollment
20.6%Transit barriers
11.0%No health insurance
20.4%Frequent mental distress
37.3%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Theatre District

The dominant input is economic stress at 10/10. At $472 a month, rents run 55% under what the rest of Buffalo commands. SNAP participation runs 44.8% against 15.2% nationally.

The poverty rate is 46%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Against the Erie County average of 6.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.5 points. 58% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Erie County average of 44.6%.

Running cool, supply constraint reads 1/10. Housing insecurity runs 32.3% against 14.2% nationally.

This is renter territory: 67% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Running hot, local political climate reads 8/10.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. That is riskier than roughly 96% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.7/10.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 36029002502

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36029002502?

Census tract 36029002502 in the Theatre District neighborhood scores 9.3/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 36029002502?

Median gross rent is $472/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 36029002502?

46.4% of residents in tract 36029002502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,895.

How socially vulnerable is tract 36029002502?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 86th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 86th, household 79th, minority 91th, housing 64th.

Is tract 36029002502 considered part of Theatre District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 36029002502 fall within Theatre District (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 36029002502 struggle to pay rent?

About 32.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 24.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 36029002502 compare to Buffalo overall?

Tract 36029002502 scores 9.3/10, higher than the parent city of Buffalo at 7.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 36029002502 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 12% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Buffalo

Top eight tracts in Buffalo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.