Neighborhood · Ranked #2,005 of 84,120 nationally

Theatre District Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

Tract 36029016500 · Erie County, NY · pop 2,033 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

Census tract 36029016500 runs through the Theatre District neighborhood of Buffalo. With 2,033 residents, it scores 6.9/10 for landlords. On the national scale it ranks #5,988 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

42% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 11% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,463 monthly, set against $66,532 in average yearly household income, roughly 26% of income at the averages. Renters make up 90% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

High

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 38% Stable renters 52% Owners 10%

Tract context

Occupied units1,249

Renter share89.5%

SVI overall0.59

Poverty rate24.5%

Median income$66,532

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Buffalo and the region

Centroid at 42.8846, -78.8730 · click any tract to drill in

Why Theatre District scores 8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Buffalo

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.7

State political climate

New York legislature & governorship

7.3

Economic stress

24.5% poverty · this tract

6.1

Supply constraint

$1,463 rent vs county FMR

7.4

Rent control risk

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

8.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

How Theatre District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 59

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

66%Socioeconomic
4%Household composition
66%Racial/ethnic minority
87%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
14%Grade C
5%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Theatre District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

16.8%Housing insecurity
10.9%Utility-shutoff threat
18.5%Food insecurity
17.0%SNAP enrollment
10.8%Transit barriers
8.3%No health insurance
17.7%Frequent mental distress
22.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Theatre District

The heaviest input here is eviction process difficulty at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Erie County average of 6.1 and above the New York statewide average of 6.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Part of this tract, about 5% of its area, sat in the redlined grade-D zone on 1930s HOLC maps, though its dominant grade was C ("Declining"). That lending history still correlates with present-day rent burden.

In CDC survey modeling, about 16.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 36029016500

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36029016500?

Census tract 36029016500 in the Theatre District neighborhood scores 8/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 36029016500?

Median gross rent is $1,463/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 36029016500?

24.5% of residents in tract 36029016500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,033.

How socially vulnerable is tract 36029016500?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 59th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 66th, household 4th, minority 66th, housing 87th.

Is tract 36029016500 considered part of Theatre District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 36029016500 fall within Theatre District (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 36029016500 struggle to pay rent?

About 16.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 36029016500 compare to Buffalo overall?

Tract 36029016500 scores 8/10, lower than the parent city of Buffalo at 9.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 36029016500 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 5% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Buffalo

Top eight tracts in Buffalo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.