Fruit Belt Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

What pushes it up most is economic stress at 10/10. SNAP participation runs 61.9% against 15.2% nationally.

The poverty rate is 67%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Against the Erie County average of 6.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.5 points. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 30.2% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

At $682 a month, rents run 35% under what the rest of Buffalo commands. Cost burden runs 57% here against 44.6% across Erie County. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1/10.

80% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. On the high side, local political climate reads 8/10.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. That is riskier than roughly 96% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 1.6 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.