University Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Buffalo

Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.5/10. It sits 1.2 points below the Erie County average of 6.8. At $893 a month, rents run 19% under what the rest of Tonawanda Town commands.

Running cool, supply constraint reads 2.6/10. Food insecurity runs 10.0% against 17.8% nationally.

This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Buffalo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. That is riskier than roughly 73% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 20% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

Social vulnerability reads 3.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Rent consumes only 16% of average household income of $68,310, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 2.1 points cooler.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.