Barnard Eviction Risk: Elevated , Rochester

20% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. 66% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. The poverty rate is 26%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

SNAP participation runs 26.6% against 15.2% nationally. Running hot, state political climate reads 7.3/10.

On the high side, local political climate reads 7.3/10. Food insecurity runs 25.5% against 17.8% nationally. Against the Monroe County average of 7.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.7 points.

This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Rochester. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. On the national scale it lands near the 90th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

Social vulnerability reads 8.6/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

Model confidence here is 65%, lower than typical because some ACS inputs for this tract carry wide margins of error, so read the score as a band, not a point.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.