Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
Northriver Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo
Tract 39095001202 · Lucas County, OH · pop 2,869 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
With a score of 5.4/10, tract 39095001202 in the Northriver area of Toledo, OH reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,869. Against Lucas County at 41.3%, 18% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%
Stable renters 65%
Owners 20%
Tract context
Occupied units853
Renter share80.0%
SVI overall0.86
Poverty rate37.7%
Median income$25,768
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
58
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
75
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Toledo and the region
Centroid at 41.6809, -83.5000 · click any tract to drill in
Why Northriver scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Toledo
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
37.7% poverty · this tract
9.4
Supply constraint
$321 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Toledo
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Toledo
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Toledo
4.0
How Northriver compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 86
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 77%Socioeconomic
- 48%Household composition
- 82%Racial/ethnic minority
- 96%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 30%Grade C
- 27%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,270Total filings over 15 yrs
- 15.74%Avg annual filing rate
- 19.3%Peak (2006)
- 70Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 15 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Northriver. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 40.8%Housing insecurity
- 35.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 56.0%Food insecurity
- 60.9%SNAP enrollment
- 30.0%Transit barriers
- 24.6%No health insurance
- 27.9%Frequent mental distress
- 49.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Northriver
At $321 a month, rents run 64% under what the rest of Toledo commands. SNAP participation runs 60.9% against 15.2% nationally. The score leans hardest on economic stress at 9.4/10.
The poverty rate is 38%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1/10.
This is renter territory: 80% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.
Adults with no health insurance runs 24.6% against 11.3% nationally. It sits 1.2 points above the Lucas County average of 4.2. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 1,270 filings here across 15 tracked years.
The severe-burden share is 9%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The worst year on record was 2006, when 19.3% of renter households were served. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.
In a typical year about 15.7% of renter households face a filing.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 39095001202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095001202?
Census tract 39095001202 in the Northriver neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39095001202?
Median gross rent is $321/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 18% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39095001202?
37.7% of residents in tract 39095001202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,869.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39095001202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 86th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 77th, household 48th, minority 82th, housing 96th.
Q5
Is tract 39095001202 considered part of Northriver?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095001202 fall within Northriver (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39095001202?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,270 eviction filings across 15 validated years in tract 39095001202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 15.74% of renter households, peaking at 19.3% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39095001202 struggle to pay rent?
About 40.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 35.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39095001202 compare to Toledo overall?
Tract 39095001202 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Toledo at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39095001202 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 27% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Toledo
Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
ONYX
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
River East
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
McComas Village
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Old Towne
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
ONYX
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
East Toledo
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Warren-Sherman
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
East Toledo
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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