Neighborhood · Ranked #16,850 of 84,120 nationally

Bell Aire Hills Eviction Risk: Moderate , Youngstown

Tract 39099814200 · Mahoning County, OH · pop 1,806 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Eviction risk in the Bell Aire Hills neighborhood of Youngstown centers on tract 39099814200, which scores 6.6/10 (Elevated tier) and is home to 1,806 residents. On the national scale it ranks #10,023 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

68% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 58% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $608 a month while the average household earns $41,429 a year, roughly 18% of income at the averages. Renters make up 20% of occupied homes.

Risk score

5.6

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 14% Stable renters 6% Owners 80%

Tract context

Occupied units866

Renter share20.0%

SVI overall0.74

Poverty rate28.9%

Median income$41,429

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Youngstown and the region

Centroid at 41.1160, -80.6032 · click any tract to drill in

Why Bell Aire Hills scores 5.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Youngstown

5.4

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

4.9

State political climate

Ohio legislature & governorship

2.4

Economic stress

28.9% poverty · this tract

7.2

Supply constraint

$608 rent vs county FMR

1.9

Rent control risk

Inherited from Youngstown

7.8

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

2.7

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Youngstown

8.6

Housing court bias

Inherited from Youngstown

8.6

How Bell Aire Hills compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 74

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

79%Socioeconomic
94%Household composition
87%Racial/ethnic minority
19%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
15%Grade C
85%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

22.9%Housing insecurity
19.1%Utility-shutoff threat
31.8%Food insecurity
31.9%SNAP enrollment
15.6%Transit barriers
11.8%No health insurance
18.2%Frequent mental distress
41.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Bell Aire Hills

The heaviest input here is housing court bias at 8.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Youngstown eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Mahoning County average of 5.8 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly Black and ranks around the 74th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 22.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 19.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 39099814200

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39099814200?

Census tract 39099814200 in the Bell Aire Hills neighborhood scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 39099814200?

Median gross rent is $608/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 68% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 39099814200?

28.9% of residents in tract 39099814200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,806.

How socially vulnerable is tract 39099814200?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 74th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 79th, household 94th, minority 87th, housing 19th.

Is tract 39099814200 considered part of Bell Aire Hills?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39099814200 fall within Bell Aire Hills (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 39099814200 struggle to pay rent?

About 22.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 19.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 39099814200 compare to Youngstown overall?

Tract 39099814200 scores 5.6/10, higher than the parent city of Youngstown at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Youngstown eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 39099814200 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 85% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Youngstown

Top eight tracts in Youngstown ranked by composite eviction-risk score.