Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #14,308 of 84,120 nationally
Thurston Eviction Risk: Elevated , Springfield
Tract 41039001803 · Lane County, OR · pop 4,194 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Census tract 41039001803 covers part of the Thurston area of Springfield, OR, and scores 6.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,194. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 8.7/10.
Risk score
6.7
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 18%
Owners 58%
Tract context
Occupied units1,691
Renter share41.9%
SVI overall0.65
Poverty rate13.4%
Median income$54,955
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
56
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
60
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
64
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Springfield and the region
Centroid at 44.0594, -122.9303 · click any tract to drill in
Why Thurston scores 6.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Springfield
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.2
State political climate
Oregon legislature & governorship
7.2
Economic stress
13.4% poverty · this tract
3.3
Supply constraint
$1,291 rent vs county FMR
3.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Springfield
6.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Springfield
8.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Springfield
6.5
How Thurston compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 65
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 60%Socioeconomic
- 48%Household composition
- 30%Racial/ethnic minority
- 81%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 351Total filings over 16 yrs
- 3.94%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.2%Peak (2001)
- 12Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 50% over the past 16 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 59Total filings 2020-21
- 0.8Avg monthly (observed)
- 1.1Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.67×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Eugene, OR as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Thurston
Severe burden reaches 24%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Against Lane County at 46.2%, 57% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Running hot, state political climate reads 7.2/10. Court records carry 351 eviction filings across 16 observed years.
The worst year on record was 2001, when 7.2% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 3.9% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 83% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.8/10. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. It tracks the Lane County average of 6.2 closely.
Average gross rent is $1,291, close to the Springfield average. Annual rent works out to 28% of average household income of $54,955.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 41039001803
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 41039001803?
Census tract 41039001803 in the Thurston neighborhood scores 6.7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 41039001803?
Median gross rent is $1,291/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 41039001803?
13.4% of residents in tract 41039001803 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,194.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 41039001803?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 65th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 60th, household 48th, minority 30th, housing 81th.
Q5
Is tract 41039001803 considered part of Thurston?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 41039001803 fall within Thurston (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 41039001803?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 351 eviction filings across 16 validated years in tract 41039001803 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.94% of renter households, peaking at 7.2% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 41039001803 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.67× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Eugene eviction risk, OR), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 41039001803 compare to Springfield overall?
Tract 41039001803 scores 6.7/10, higher than the parent city of Springfield at 6.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Springfield eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Springfield
Top eight tracts in Springfield ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OR
River Glen
7.7
/ 10 · High
Tract · OR
Glenwood
7.7
/ 10 · High
Tract · OR
Glenwood
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OR
41039003400
7.2
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OR
River Glen
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OR
41039001903
6.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OR
River Glen
6.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OR
41039001902
6.7
/ 10 · Elevated
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