Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #13,119 of 84,120 nationally
Thurston Eviction Risk: Moderate , Springfield
Tract 41039001803 · Lane County, OR · pop 4,194 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
The Elevated-tier score of 6.2/10 for census tract 41039001803 reflects conditions in the Thurston area of Springfield, Oregon. That is riskier than about 80% of US census tracts.
57% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 24% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,291 monthly, set against $54,955 in average yearly household income, roughly 28% of income at the averages. About 42% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
5.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 18%
Owners 58%
Tract context
Occupied units1,691
Renter share41.9%
SVI overall0.65
Poverty rate13.4%
Median income$54,955
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
66
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
82
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Springfield and the region
Centroid at 44.0594, -122.9303 · click any tract to drill in
Why Thurston scores 5.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Springfield
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.2
State political climate
Oregon legislature & governorship
7.2
Economic stress
13.4% poverty · this tract
3.3
Supply constraint
$1,291 rent vs county FMR
3.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Springfield
6.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Springfield
8.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Springfield
6.5
How Thurston compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 65
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 60%Socioeconomic
- 48%Household composition
- 30%Racial/ethnic minority
- 81%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 351Total filings over 16 yrs
- 3.94%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.2%Peak (2001)
- 12Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 50% over the past 16 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 59Total filings 2020-21
- 0.8Avg monthly (observed)
- 1.1Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.67×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Eugene, OR as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Thurston
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 8.7/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Springfield eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Lane County average of 6.1 and in line with the Oregon statewide average of 6.0. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 65th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
During 2020 and 2021, eviction filings here ran at about 0.67x the pre-COVID monthly baseline, well below the pre-pandemic norm, the signature of an eviction moratorium at work.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 41039001803
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 41039001803?
Census tract 41039001803 in the Thurston neighborhood scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 41039001803?
Median gross rent is $1,291/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 41039001803?
13.4% of residents in tract 41039001803 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,194.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 41039001803?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 65th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 60th, household 48th, minority 30th, housing 81th.
Q5
Is tract 41039001803 considered part of Thurston?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 41039001803 fall within Thurston (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 41039001803?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 351 eviction filings across 16 validated years in tract 41039001803 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.94% of renter households, peaking at 7.2% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 41039001803 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.67× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Eugene eviction risk, OR), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 41039001803 compare to Springfield overall?
Tract 41039001803 scores 5.9/10, lower than the parent city of Springfield at 6.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Springfield eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Springfield
Top eight tracts in Springfield ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OR
River Glen
6.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OR
Glenwood
6.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OR
Glenwood
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OR
41039003400
6.2
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OR
41039001903
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OR
River Glen
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OR
River Glen
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OR
41039001902
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Related