Prospect Homes Eviction Risk: Elevated , Johnstown
Tract 42021013500 ·
Cambria County, PA · pop 2,263 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
Tract 42021013500 covers the Prospect Homes neighborhood of Johnstown in Pennsylvania. Home to 2,263 residents, it scores 5.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 60% of US census tracts.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 29% of renter households, a moderate level, and 14% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $567 monthly, set against $28,892 in average yearly household income, roughly 24% of income at the averages. Renters make up 60% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
6.9
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%Stable renters 43%Owners 40%
Tract context
Occupied units1,203
Renter share60.2%
SVI overall0.71
Poverty rate41.6%
Median income$28,892
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100th percentile
#1 of 5 tracts In Prospect Homes
Very High
Within parent city
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Johnstown
Moderate
Within county
100th percentile
#1 of 42 tracts In Cambria County
Very High
Within state
97th percentile
#95 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Johnstown and the region
Centroid at 40.3124, -78.8991 · click any tract to drill in
Why Prospect Homes scores 6.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Johnstown
3.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
41.6% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$567 rent vs county FMR
1.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Johnstown
5.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Johnstown
9.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Johnstown
7.4
How Prospect Homes compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 71
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
59%Socioeconomic
96%Household composition
46%Racial/ethnic minority
49%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
0%Grade A
0%Grade B
47%Grade C
9%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
42Total filings over 1 yrs
8.34%Avg annual filing rate
8.3%Peak (2006)
42Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Prospect Homes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
The score leans hardest on economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Johnstown eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Cambria County average of 4.9 and in line with the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Part of this tract, about 9% of its area, sat in the redlined grade-D zone on 1930s HOLC maps, though its dominant grade was C ("Declining"). That lending history still correlates with present-day rent burden.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 71st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 42021013500
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42021013500?
Census tract 42021013500 in the Prospect Homes neighborhood scores 6.9/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42021013500?
Median gross rent is $567/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 29% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42021013500?
41.6% of residents in tract 42021013500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,263.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42021013500?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 71th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 96th, minority 46th, housing 49th.
Q5
Is tract 42021013500 considered part of Prospect Homes?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42021013500 fall within Prospect Homes (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42021013500?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 42 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 42021013500 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.34% of renter households, peaking at 8.3% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 42021013500 compare to Johnstown overall?
Tract 42021013500 scores 6.9/10, higher than the parent city of Johnstown at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Johnstown eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 42021013500 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 9% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.