Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #19,618 of 84,120 nationally
Prospect Homes Eviction Risk: Moderate , Johnstown
Tract 42021013500 · Cambria County, PA · pop 2,263 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
Tract 42021013500 sits in the Prospect Homes area of Dale, PA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.9/10. What pushes it up most is economic stress at 10/10.
Risk score
5.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%
Stable renters 43%
Owners 40%
Tract context
Occupied units1,203
Renter share60.2%
SVI overall0.71
Poverty rate41.6%
Median income$28,892
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
100
th percentile
Very High
Within state
80
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Johnstown and the region
Centroid at 40.3124, -78.8991 · click any tract to drill in
Why Prospect Homes scores 5.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Johnstown
3.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
41.6% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$567 rent vs county FMR
1.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Johnstown
5.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Johnstown
9.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Johnstown
7.4
How Prospect Homes compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 71
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 59%Socioeconomic
- 96%Household composition
- 46%Racial/ethnic minority
- 49%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 47%Grade C
- 9%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 42Total filings over 1 yrs
- 8.34%Avg annual filing rate
- 8.3%Peak (2006)
- 42Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Prospect Homes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Prospect Homes
The poverty rate is 42%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.5/10.
Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1.1/10. Against the Cambria County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.8 points. 29% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Cambria County average of 37.4%.
14% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Court records carry 42 eviction filings across 1 observed years. Filings peaked in 2006 at 8.3% of renter households.
This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Johnstown. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 8.3% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 77% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Social vulnerability reads 7.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 42021013500
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42021013500?
Census tract 42021013500 in the Prospect Homes neighborhood scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42021013500?
Median gross rent is $567/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 29% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42021013500?
41.6% of residents in tract 42021013500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,263.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42021013500?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 71th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 96th, minority 46th, housing 49th.
Q5
Is tract 42021013500 considered part of Prospect Homes?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42021013500 fall within Prospect Homes (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42021013500?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 42 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 42021013500 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.34% of renter households, peaking at 8.3% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 42021013500 compare to Johnstown overall?
Tract 42021013500 scores 5.9/10, higher than the parent city of Johnstown at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Johnstown eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 42021013500 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 9% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
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