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Neighborhood · Ranked #6,848 of 84,120 nationally

Prospect Homes Eviction Risk: Elevated , Johnstown

Tract 42021013400 · Cambria County, PA · pop 2,439 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Here is how census tract 42021013400, in Prospect Homes in Johnstown eviction risk, looks to a landlord: a 5.2/10 eviction-risk score (Moderate tier) across a population of 2,439. It lands near the 45th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

26% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a moderate level, and 13% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $705 monthly, set against $34,760 in average yearly household income, roughly 24% of income at the averages. About 36% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
6.6
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9% Stable renters 26% Owners 65%
Tract context
Occupied units1,158
Renter share35.7%
SVI overall0.60
Poverty rate27.6%
Median income$34,760

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
25 th percentile
Rank, 25th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 5 tracts In Prospect Homes
Low
Within parent city
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#5 of 9 tracts In Johnstown
Moderate
Within county
85 th percentile
Rank, 85th percentileLowHigh
#7 of 42 tracts In Cambria County
High
Within state
93 th percentile
Rank, 93rd percentileLowHigh
#242 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Johnstown and the region

Centroid at 40.3376, -78.9143 · click any tract to drill in

Why Prospect Homes scores 6.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Johnstown
3.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
27.6% poverty · this tract
6.9
Supply constraint
$705 rent vs county FMR
2.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Johnstown
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Johnstown
8.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Johnstown
7.5

How Prospect Homes compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Prospect Homes risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.66.6This tracttract 013400Johnstown: 4.24.2Johnstownparent cityCounty: 4.64.6Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.93.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 60

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 25Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 4.76%Avg annual filing rate
  • 4.8%Peak (2006)
  • 25Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Prospect Homes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Prospect Homes

The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 8.8/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Johnstown eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Cambria County average of 4.9 and in line with the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

This tract overlaps land the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation redlined in the 1930s, a dominant grade of D ("Hazardous") across 37% of the tract. Redlining cut off mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class blocks, and those areas still tend to carry higher rent burden and eviction filings today.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 60th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 42021013400

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42021013400?

Census tract 42021013400 in the Prospect Homes neighborhood scores 6.6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42021013400?

Median gross rent is $705/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 26% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42021013400?

27.6% of residents in tract 42021013400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,439.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42021013400?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 60th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 60th, household 70th, minority 59th, housing 42th.
Q5

Is tract 42021013400 considered part of Prospect Homes?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42021013400 fall within Prospect Homes (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42021013400?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 25 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 42021013400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.76% of renter households, peaking at 4.8% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42021013400 compare to Johnstown overall?

Tract 42021013400 scores 6.6/10, higher than the parent city of Johnstown at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Johnstown eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 42021013400 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 37% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Johnstown

Top eight tracts in Johnstown ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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