Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #9,878 of 84,120 nationally
Prospect Homes Eviction Risk: Elevated , Johnstown
Tract 42021000200 · Cambria County, PA · pop 704 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
For landlords sizing up the Prospect Homes neighborhood of Johnstown, census tract 42021000200 carries a moderate eviction-risk score of 5.6/10. On the national scale it ranks #33,929 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
41% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 21% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $640 a month while the average household earns $37,143 a year, roughly 21% of income at the averages. Renters make up 57% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
6.2
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 34%
Owners 42%
Tract context
Occupied units284
Renter share57.4%
SVI overall0.61
Poverty rate27.0%
Median income$37,143
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
25
th percentile
Low
Within county
78
th percentile
High
Within state
89
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Johnstown and the region
Centroid at 40.3209, -78.9212 · click any tract to drill in
Why Prospect Homes scores 6.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Johnstown
3.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
27.0% poverty · this tract
6.8
Supply constraint
$640 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Johnstown
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Johnstown
8.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Johnstown
7.5
How Prospect Homes compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 61
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 80%Socioeconomic
- 45%Household composition
- 63%Racial/ethnic minority
- 31%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 2%Grade B
- 34%Grade C
- 10%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 9Total filings over 1 yrs
- 5.73%Avg annual filing rate
- 5.7%Peak (2006)
- 9Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Prospect Homes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Prospect Homes
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 8.8/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Johnstown eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Cambria County average of 4.9 and in line with the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Part of this tract, about 10% of its area, sat in the redlined grade-D zone on 1930s HOLC maps, though its dominant grade was C ("Declining"). That lending history still correlates with present-day rent burden.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 9 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 5.7% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 5.7% of renter households in 2006.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 42021000200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42021000200?
Census tract 42021000200 in the Prospect Homes neighborhood scores 6.2/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42021000200?
Median gross rent is $640/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42021000200?
27.0% of residents in tract 42021000200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 704.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42021000200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 61th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 80th, household 45th, minority 63th, housing 31th.
Q5
Is tract 42021000200 considered part of Prospect Homes?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42021000200 fall within Prospect Homes (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42021000200?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 9 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 42021000200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.73% of renter households, peaking at 5.7% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 42021000200 compare to Johnstown overall?
Tract 42021000200 scores 6.2/10, higher than the parent city of Johnstown at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Johnstown eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 42021000200 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 10% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Johnstown
Top eight tracts in Johnstown ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · PA
Oakhurst Homes
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Moxham
6.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Oakhurst Homes
6.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Prospect Homes
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Prospect Homes
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Prospect Homes
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Roxbury
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Moxham
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
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