Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #21,564 of 84,120 nationally
Prospect Homes Eviction Risk: Moderate , Johnstown
Tract 42021000200 · Cambria County, PA · pop 704 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
With a score of 5.7/10, tract 42021000200 in the Prospect Homes area of Johnstown, PA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 8.8/10.
Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 34%
Owners 42%
Tract context
Occupied units284
Renter share57.4%
SVI overall0.61
Poverty rate27.0%
Median income$37,143
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
25
th percentile
Low
Within county
83
th percentile
High
Within state
77
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Johnstown and the region
Centroid at 40.3209, -78.9212 · click any tract to drill in
Why Prospect Homes scores 5.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Johnstown
3.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
27.0% poverty · this tract
6.8
Supply constraint
$640 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Johnstown
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Johnstown
8.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Johnstown
7.5
How Prospect Homes compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 61
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 80%Socioeconomic
- 45%Household composition
- 63%Racial/ethnic minority
- 31%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 2%Grade B
- 34%Grade C
- 10%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 9Total filings over 1 yrs
- 5.73%Avg annual filing rate
- 5.7%Peak (2006)
- 9Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Prospect Homes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Prospect Homes
The severe-burden share is 21%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1.8/10.
Against the Cambria County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.6 points. The poverty rate is 27%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.
Sitting well above the midpoint, housing-court posture reads 7.5/10. Court records carry 9 eviction filings across 1 observed years. The worst year on record was 2006, when 5.7% of renter households were served.
This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Johnstown. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 5.7% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #21,564 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.5/10. Statewide the PA average is 4.6, so this tract runs 1.1 points hotter.
Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 42021000200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42021000200?
Census tract 42021000200 in the Prospect Homes neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42021000200?
Median gross rent is $640/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42021000200?
27.0% of residents in tract 42021000200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 704.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42021000200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 61th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 80th, household 45th, minority 63th, housing 31th.
Q5
Is tract 42021000200 considered part of Prospect Homes?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42021000200 fall within Prospect Homes (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42021000200?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 9 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 42021000200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.73% of renter households, peaking at 5.7% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 42021000200 compare to Johnstown overall?
Tract 42021000200 scores 5.7/10, higher than the parent city of Johnstown at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Johnstown eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 42021000200 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 10% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Johnstown
Top eight tracts in Johnstown ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · PA
Prospect Homes
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Oakhurst Homes
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Prospect Homes
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Prospect Homes
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Moxham
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Oakhurst Homes
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Roxbury
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Moxham
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
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