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Neighborhood · Ranked #20,506 of 84,120 nationally

Prospect Homes Eviction Risk: Moderate , Johnstown

Tract 42021000300 · Cambria County, PA · pop 1,611 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

42021000300 is a census tract in the Prospect Homes area of Johnstown, PA. It scores 5.8/10 for landlords. Population here is 1,611. The severe-burden share is 36%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
5.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20% Stable renters 28% Owners 52%
Tract context
Occupied units635
Renter share48.2%
SVI overall0.77
Poverty rate39.0%
Median income$40,861

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 5 tracts In Prospect Homes
Moderate
Within parent city
88 th percentile
Rank, 88th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 9 tracts In Johnstown
High
Within county
85 th percentile
Rank, 85th percentileLowHigh
#7 of 42 tracts In Cambria County
High
Within state
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#745 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Johnstown and the region

Centroid at 40.3115, -78.9110 · click any tract to drill in

Why Prospect Homes scores 5.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Johnstown
3.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
39.0% poverty · this tract
9.7
Supply constraint
$805 rent vs county FMR
3.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Johnstown
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Johnstown
8.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Johnstown
7.5

How Prospect Homes compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Prospect Homes risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.8This tracttract 0003004.4Johnstownparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 77

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 32Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 5.41%Avg annual filing rate
  • 5.4%Peak (2006)
  • 32Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Prospect Homes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Prospect Homes

The score leans hardest on economic stress at 9.7/10. The poverty rate is 39%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.8/10.

Against the Cambria County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.7 points. Average gross rent is $805, 25% above the Johnstown average. Sitting well above the midpoint, housing-court posture reads 7.5/10.

The filing record is not thin: 32 evictions over 1 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2006, when 5.4% of renter households were served. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

In a typical year about 5.4% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #20,506 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.9/10.

Statewide the PA average is 4.6, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 42021000300

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42021000300?

Census tract 42021000300 in the Prospect Homes neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42021000300?

Median gross rent is $805/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42021000300?

39.0% of residents in tract 42021000300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,611.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42021000300?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 77th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 80th, household 48th, minority 48th, housing 82th.
Q5

Is tract 42021000300 considered part of Prospect Homes?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42021000300 fall within Prospect Homes (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42021000300?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 32 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 42021000300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.41% of renter households, peaking at 5.4% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42021000300 compare to Johnstown overall?

Tract 42021000300 scores 5.8/10, higher than the parent city of Johnstown at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Johnstown eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 42021000300 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 20% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Johnstown

Top eight tracts in Johnstown ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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