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Neighborhood · Ranked #6,848 of 84,120 nationally

Prospect Homes Eviction Risk: Elevated , Johnstown

Tract 42021000100 · Cambria County, PA · pop 978 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

The Prospect Homes neighborhood of Johnstown is where census tract 42021000100 sits, home to 978 residents. Its landlord eviction-risk score is 6.1/10. That is riskier than about 77% of US census tracts.

45% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 24% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $382 a month against an average household income of $13,870 a year, roughly 33% of income at the averages. About 97% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
6.6
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 44% Stable renters 53% Owners 3%
Tract context
Occupied units825
Renter share97.5%
SVI overall0.77
Poverty rate50.7%
Median income$13,870

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 5 tracts In Prospect Homes
High
Within parent city
38 th percentile
Rank, 38th percentileLowHigh
#6 of 9 tracts In Johnstown
Low
Within county
90 th percentile
Rank, 90th percentileLowHigh
#5 of 42 tracts In Cambria County
Very High
Within state
93 th percentile
Rank, 93rd percentileLowHigh
#242 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Johnstown and the region

Centroid at 40.3260, -78.9211 · click any tract to drill in

Why Prospect Homes scores 6.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Johnstown
3.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
50.7% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$382 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Johnstown
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Johnstown
8.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Johnstown
7.5

How Prospect Homes compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Prospect Homes risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.66.6This tracttract 000100Johnstown: 4.24.2Johnstownparent cityCounty: 4.64.6Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.93.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 77

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 10Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 1.11%Avg annual filing rate
  • 1.1%Peak (2006)
  • 10Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Prospect Homes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Prospect Homes

The score leans hardest on economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Johnstown eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Cambria County average of 4.9 and above the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 10 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 1.1% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 1.1% of renter households in 2006.

Part of this tract, about 8% of its area, sat in the redlined grade-D zone on 1930s HOLC maps, though its dominant grade was C ("Declining"). That lending history still correlates with present-day rent burden.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 42021000100

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42021000100?

Census tract 42021000100 in the Prospect Homes neighborhood scores 6.6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42021000100?

Median gross rent is $382/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42021000100?

50.7% of residents in tract 42021000100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 978.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42021000100?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 77th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 91th, household 32th, minority 38th, housing 77th.
Q5

Is tract 42021000100 considered part of Prospect Homes?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42021000100 fall within Prospect Homes (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42021000100?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 10 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 42021000100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.11% of renter households, peaking at 1.1% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42021000100 compare to Johnstown overall?

Tract 42021000100 scores 6.6/10, higher than the parent city of Johnstown at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Johnstown eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 42021000100 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 8% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Johnstown

Top eight tracts in Johnstown ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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