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Neighborhood · Ranked #5,198 of 84,120 nationally

North Hill Historic District Eviction Risk: Elevated , New Castle

Tract 42073000300 · Lawrence County, PA · pop 3,893 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

With a score of 6.7/10, tract 42073000300 in North Hill Historic District in New Castle ranks in the Elevated tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 3,893 residents. It lands near the 90th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

60% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 32% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $647 monthly, set against $36,625 in average yearly household income, roughly 21% of income at the averages. About 48% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
6.9
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 29% Stable renters 20% Owners 51%
Tract context
Occupied units1,660
Renter share48.2%
SVI overall0.97
Poverty rate33.9%
Median income$36,625

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 6 tracts In North Hill Historic District
Very High
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 10 tracts In New Castle
Very High
Within county
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 28 tracts In Lawrence County
Very High
Within state
97 th percentile
Rank, 97th percentileLowHigh
#95 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across New Castle and the region

Centroid at 41.0091, -80.3455 · click any tract to drill in

Why North Hill Historic District scores 6.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from New Castle
4.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.5
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
33.9% poverty · this tract
8.5
Supply constraint
$647 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from New Castle
7.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from New Castle
8.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from New Castle
8.0

How North Hill Historic District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
North Hill Historic District risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.96.9This tracttract 000300New Castle: 4.44.4New Castleparent cityCounty: 4.24.2Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.93.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 97

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 399Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 13.78%Avg annual filing rate
  • 17.4%Peak (2006)
  • 106Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2000 to 2006
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 420730003002000: 100 filings (11.23/100 renter HHs)2004: 99 filings (11.11/100 renter HHs)2005: 94 filings (15.41/100 renter HHs)2006: 106 filings (17.38/100 renter HHs)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within North Hill Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in North Hill Historic District

The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 8.7/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from New Castle eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Lawrence County average of 5.5 and above the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 97th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 399 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 13.8% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 17.4% of renter households in 2006.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 42073000300

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42073000300?

Census tract 42073000300 in the North Hill Historic District neighborhood scores 6.9/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42073000300?

Median gross rent is $647/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42073000300?

33.9% of residents in tract 42073000300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,893.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42073000300?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 97th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 87th, household 99th, minority 39th, housing 98th.
Q5

Is tract 42073000300 considered part of North Hill Historic District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42073000300 fall within North Hill Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42073000300?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 399 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 42073000300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 13.78% of renter households, peaking at 17.4% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42073000300 compare to New Castle overall?

Tract 42073000300 scores 6.9/10, higher than the parent city of New Castle at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from New Castle eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 42073000300 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 8% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in New Castle

Top eight tracts in New Castle ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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