Neighborhood · Ranked #28,095 of 84,120 nationally
Donaldson Run Eviction Risk: Moderate , Arlington
Tract 51013100500 ·
Arlington County, VA · pop 4,461 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Census tract 51013100500 covers part of the Donaldson Run area of Arlington, VA, and scores 5.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,461 residents. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
5.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8%Stable renters 15%Owners 77%
Tract context
Occupied units1,600
Renter share22.9%
SVI overall0.10
Poverty rate2.8%
Median income$231,500
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Donaldson Run
Moderate
Within parent city
14th percentile
#61 of 71 tracts In Arlington
Very Low
Within county
19th percentile
#58 of 71 tracts In Arlington County
Very Low
Within state
83th percentile
#370 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Arlington and the region
Centroid at 38.9018, -77.1139 · click any tract to drill in
Why Donaldson Run scores 5.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,417 rent vs county FMR
5.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0
How Donaldson Run compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 10
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
3%Socioeconomic
19%Household composition
41%Racial/ethnic minority
34%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
5.3%Housing insecurity
3.4%Utility-shutoff threat
5.4%Food insecurity
3.6%SNAP enrollment
4.0%Transit barriers
4.6%No health insurance
13.0%Frequent mental distress
20.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Donaldson Run
Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.5/10. On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.2/10.
SNAP participation runs 3.6% against 15.2% nationally. Against the Arlington County average of 5.9, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.6 points. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.4% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
That is riskier than roughly 67% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 23% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Social vulnerability reads 1.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Against average income of $231,500, annual rent is just 13%. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.1 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
Poverty sits at 3%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51013100500
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013100500?
Census tract 51013100500 in the Donaldson Run neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51013100500?
Median gross rent is $2,417/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51013100500?
2.8% of residents in tract 51013100500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,461.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51013100500?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 10th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 3th, household 19th, minority 41th, housing 34th.
Q5
Is tract 51013100500 considered part of Donaldson Run?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013100500 fall within Donaldson Run (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51013100500 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51013100500 compare to Arlington overall?
Tract 51013100500 scores 5.3/10, lower than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Arlington
Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.