Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #17,132 of 84,120 nationally
Glencarlyn Eviction Risk: Elevated , Arlington
Tract 51013102100 · Arlington County, VA · pop 2,497 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
Tract 51013102100 sits in the Glencarlyn area of Arlington eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 6.2/10. Against Arlington County at 38.9%, about one in five of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
6.2
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8%
Stable renters 29%
Owners 63%
Tract context
Occupied units1,003
Renter share36.6%
SVI overall0.50
Poverty rate12.3%
Median income$152,708
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
71
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
73
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
95
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Arlington and the region
Centroid at 38.8636, -77.1248 · click any tract to drill in
Why Glencarlyn scores 6.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
12.3% poverty · this tract
3.1
Supply constraint
$237 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0
How Glencarlyn compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 50
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 12%Socioeconomic
- 67%Household composition
- 63%Racial/ethnic minority
- 84%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 11Total filings over 1 yrs
- 2.74%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.7%Peak (2016)
- 11Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.8%Housing insecurity
- 4.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.7%Food insecurity
- 6.2%SNAP enrollment
- 5.0%Transit barriers
- 7.6%No health insurance
- 11.8%Frequent mental distress
- 27.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Glencarlyn
Average gross rent is $237, 90% below the Arlington average. The clearest offset is supply constraint at 1/10. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.5/10.
Running hot, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. Food insecurity runs 8.7% against 17.8% nationally. The filing record is not thin: 11 evictions over 1 years of observation.
Housing insecurity runs 6.8% against 14.2% nationally. Filings peaked in 2016 at 2.7% of renter households.
In a typical year about 2.7% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 80% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Social vulnerability reads 5.5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Against average income of $152,708, annual rent is just 2%.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51013102100
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013102100?
Census tract 51013102100 in the Glencarlyn neighborhood scores 6.2/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51013102100?
Median gross rent is $237/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 22% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51013102100?
12.3% of residents in tract 51013102100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,497.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51013102100?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 50th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 12th, household 67th, minority 63th, housing 84th.
Q5
Is tract 51013102100 considered part of Glencarlyn?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013102100 fall within Glencarlyn (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51013102100?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 11 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51013102100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.74% of renter households, peaking at 2.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51013102100 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51013102100 compare to Arlington overall?
Tract 51013102100 scores 6.2/10, right in line with the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Arlington
Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
North Highland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
North Highland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Douglas Park
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Virginia Highlands
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lyon Park
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Buckingham
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Arlington Mill
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Addison Heights
7
/ 10 · Elevated
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