Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #17,650 of 84,120 nationally
Barcroft Eviction Risk: Elevated , Arlington
Tract 51013102301 · Arlington County, VA · pop 1,421 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
51013102301 is a census tract in the Barcroft area of Arlington, VA. It scores 6.1/10 for landlords. Population here is 1,421. Severe burden reaches 28%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
6.1
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 77%
Tract context
Occupied units659
Renter share22.9%
SVI overall0.47
Poverty rate11.4%
Median income$139,792
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
66
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
70
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
95
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Arlington and the region
Centroid at 38.8664, -77.1054 · click any tract to drill in
Why Barcroft scores 6.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
11.4% poverty · this tract
2.8
Supply constraint
$1,446 rent vs county FMR
1.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0
How Barcroft compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 47
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 21%Socioeconomic
- 86%Household composition
- 61%Racial/ethnic minority
- 46%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 5Total filings over 1 yrs
- 4.00%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.0%Peak (2016)
- 5Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Barcroft. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.3%Housing insecurity
- 5.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.1%Food insecurity
- 7.5%SNAP enrollment
- 6.1%Transit barriers
- 7.8%No health insurance
- 14.5%Frequent mental distress
- 24.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Barcroft
At $1,446 a month, rents run 38% under what the rest of Arlington commands. Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1.2/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.5/10.
Running hot, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. Court records carry 5 eviction filings across 1 observed years. SNAP participation runs 7.5% against 15.2% nationally.
Food insecurity runs 10.1% against 17.8% nationally. Filings peaked in 2016 at 4.0% of renter households. In a typical year about 4.0% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 79% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 23% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 5.2/10.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51013102301
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013102301?
Census tract 51013102301 in the Barcroft neighborhood scores 6.1/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51013102301?
Median gross rent is $1,446/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51013102301?
11.4% of residents in tract 51013102301 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,421.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51013102301?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 47th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 21th, household 86th, minority 61th, housing 46th.
Q5
Is tract 51013102301 considered part of Barcroft?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013102301 fall within Barcroft (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51013102301?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 5 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51013102301 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.00% of renter households, peaking at 4.0% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51013102301 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51013102301 compare to Arlington overall?
Tract 51013102301 scores 6.1/10, right in line with the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Arlington
Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Buckingham
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Arlington Mill
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
North Highland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
North Highland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Douglas Park
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Virginia Highlands
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lyon Park
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Addison Heights
7
/ 10 · Elevated
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