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Neighborhood · Arlington, VA

Barcroft Eviction Risk: Lower

2 census tracts · pop 6,130 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 1.4/10 · range 1.3–1.9

Barcroft is a white-hispanic neighborhood in Arlington with 2 census tracts and a population of 6,130 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 1.4/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 49% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 31% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $1,875/month sits 19% lower than the Arlington citywide average ($2,322).

Risk score
1.4
Lower
2 tracts · population-weighted
Barcroft vs Arlington How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
48.8% +84%
Arlington: 26.5%
Average gross rent
$1,875 -19%
Arlington: $2,322
Average HH income
$137,300 -2%
Arlington: $140,160
Poverty rate
4.4% -38%
Arlington: 7.1%
Renter share
45.7% -22%
Arlington: 58.7%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Barcroft and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 2 tracts span score 1.3–1.9

Why Barcroft scores 1.4

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 8.2–8.2 across tracts
8.2
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 8.5–8.5 across tracts
8.5
Rent control risk
49% of income on rent · Range 4.0–4.0 across tracts
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 5.5–5.5 across tracts
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
46% renter households · Range 7.0–7.0 across tracts
7.0
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 6.0–6.0 across tracts
6.0
Economic stress
4.4% below poverty line · Range 1.0–2.8 across tracts
1.4
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.2–3.7 across tracts
3.1
Risk score comparison

Barcroft vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Barcroft score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Barcroft: 1.41.4BarcroftNeighborhoodParent city: 4.64.6Parent cityhost cityState: 3.83.8Stateavg in stateU.S.: 4.74.7U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

2 tracts in Barcroft

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
51013102301 1.9 1,421 36% $1,446
51013102302 1.3 4,709 53% $2,004
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 56

Pop-weighted across 2 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 46%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 46%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 66%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 64%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Barcroft

Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 64Total filings (sum)
  • 8.13%Avg annual filing rate
  • 9.4%Peak year (2016)
  • 8.13%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Barcroft

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Barcroft

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Barcroft?

Barcroft scores 1.4/10 (Lower tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Barcroft compare to Arlington overall?

Barcroft scores 3.2 points lower than Arlington overall (4.6/10). Renters spend 49% of income on rent vs 27% citywide. Average rent: $1,875 vs $2,322.
Q3

What is the average rent in Barcroft?

Average gross rent in Barcroft is $1,875/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Barcroft residents are renters?

46% of Barcroft households are renter-occupied (vs 59% in Arlington). The neighborhood has 6,130 residents.
Q5

Is Barcroft a high social-vulnerability area?

Barcroft sits in the 56th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Barcroft have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Barcroft is census tract 51013102301 (score 1.9/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 1.3 to 1.9, a spread of 0.6 points.
Q7

How safe is Barcroft for landlords?

Barcroft carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (1.4/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Arlington as a whole (4.6/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Barcroft?

Barcroft has 6,414 residents (White-Hispanic Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (50.5%), Hispanic / Latino (25.2%), Black (non-Hispanic) (13%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Barcroft

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Arlington

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Barcroft.

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