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Neighborhood · Arlington, VA

Barcroft Eviction Risk: Moderate

2 census tracts · pop 6,130 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.5/10 · range 5.3–6.1

Barcroft takes in 2 census tracts of Arlington, VA and houses 6,130 people. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 5.5/10, in the Moderate tier. Cost burden runs roughly one in two against 26.5% citywide, putting Barcroft 22.3% over its own city.

Severe burden reaches 31%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. Pulling the other way is economic stress, at 1.4/10.

Average gross rent is $1,875, 19% below the Arlington average of $2,322. Filings are well documented here: 64 across 2 observed tracts. Sitting well above the midpoint is tenant-organizing strength at 7/10.

Filing activity peaked in 2016 at 9.4% of renter households. Among the 39 mapped neighborhoods of Arlington, it ranks #20 by risk, the middle third.

Judgments average 2.3% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. For a like-for-like read, Green Valley and Lynhaven score within a fraction of it.

Rent takes 16% of average household income, comfortably inside the 30% line and unusually low for a rental sub-market. Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Its 2 tracts score within 0.8 points of one another, so the area figure travels well to individual addresses.

46% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

With little internal variation, 5.5/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.

Risk score
5.5
Moderate
2 tracts · population-weighted
Barcroft vs Arlington How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
48.8% +84%
Arlington: 26.5%
Average gross rent
$1,875 -19%
Arlington: $2,322
Average HH income
$137,300 -2%
Arlington: $140,160
Poverty rate
4.4% -38%
Arlington: 7.1%
Renter share
45.7% -22%
Arlington: 58.7%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Barcroft and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 2 tracts span score 5.3–6.1

Why Barcroft scores 5.5

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 8.2–8.2 across tracts
8.2
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 8.5–8.5 across tracts
8.5
Rent control risk
49% of income on rent · Range 4.0–4.0 across tracts
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 5.5–5.5 across tracts
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
46% renter households · Range 7.0–7.0 across tracts
7.0
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 6.0–6.0 across tracts
6.0
Economic stress
4.4% below poverty line · Range 1.0–2.8 across tracts
1.4
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.2–3.7 across tracts
3.1
Risk score comparison

Barcroft vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Barcroft score vs. parent city, state, U.S.5.5BarcroftNeighborhood6.0Parent cityhost city4.3Stateavg in state5.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

2 tracts in Barcroft

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕ Score↕ Pop↕ % over 30% on rent↕ Average rent↕
51013102301 6.1 1,421 36% $1,446
51013102302 5.3 4,709 53% $2,004
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 56

Pop-weighted across 2 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 46%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 46%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 66%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 64%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Barcroft

Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 64Total filings (sum)
  • 8.13%Avg annual filing rate
  • 9.4%Peak year (2016)
  • 8.13%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Barcroft

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Barcroft

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Barcroft?

Barcroft scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Barcroft compare to Arlington overall?

Barcroft scores 0.5 points lower than Arlington overall (6/10). Renters spend 49% of income on rent vs 27% citywide. Average rent: $1,875 vs $2,322.
Q3

What is the average rent in Barcroft?

Average gross rent in Barcroft is $1,875/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Barcroft residents are renters?

46% of Barcroft households are renter-occupied (vs 59% in Arlington). The neighborhood has 6,130 residents.
Q5

Is Barcroft a high social-vulnerability area?

Barcroft sits in the 56th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Barcroft have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Barcroft is census tract 51013102301 (score 6.1/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 5.3 to 6.1, a spread of 0.8 points.
Q7

How safe is Barcroft for landlords?

Barcroft carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.5/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Arlington as a whole (6/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Barcroft?

Barcroft has 6,414 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (50.5%), Hispanic / Latino (25.2%), Black (non-Hispanic) (13%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Barcroft

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Arlington

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Barcroft.

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