Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #17,650 of 84,120 nationally
Penrose Eviction Risk: Elevated , Arlington
Tract 51013102500 · Arlington County, VA · pop 5,452 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
With a score of 6.1/10, tract 51013102500 in the Penrose area of Arlington, VA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 5,452 residents. The score leans hardest on local political climate at 8.5/10.
Risk score
6.1
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21%
Stable renters 49%
Owners 30%
Tract context
Occupied units2,706
Renter share69.7%
SVI overall0.16
Poverty rate7.4%
Median income$118,284
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
66
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
69
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
95
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Arlington and the region
Centroid at 38.8662, -77.0800 · click any tract to drill in
Why Penrose scores 6.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.4% poverty · this tract
1.8
Supply constraint
$1,943 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0
How Penrose compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 16
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 6%Socioeconomic
- 4%Household composition
- 56%Racial/ethnic minority
- 73%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 42Total filings over 1 yrs
- 2.21%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.2%Peak (2016)
- 42Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.0%Housing insecurity
- 4.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.7%Food insecurity
- 5.1%SNAP enrollment
- 5.1%Transit barriers
- 6.9%No health insurance
- 13.8%Frequent mental distress
- 19.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Penrose
This is renter territory: 70% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Against Arlington County at 38.9%, 30% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.8/10. On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. The severe-burden share is 16%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Disability prevalence runs 19.2% against 31.5% nationally. Food insecurity runs 7.7% against 17.8% nationally. Average gross rent is $1,943, 16% below the Arlington average.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 42 filings here across 1 tracked years. Filings peaked in 2016 at 2.2% of renter households.
In a typical year about 2.2% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 79th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.5/10.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51013102500
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013102500?
Census tract 51013102500 in the Penrose neighborhood scores 6.1/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51013102500?
Median gross rent is $1,943/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51013102500?
7.4% of residents in tract 51013102500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,452.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51013102500?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 16th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 6th, household 4th, minority 56th, housing 73th.
Q5
Is tract 51013102500 considered part of Penrose?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013102500 fall within Penrose (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51013102500?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 42 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51013102500 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.21% of renter households, peaking at 2.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51013102500 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51013102500 compare to Arlington overall?
Tract 51013102500 scores 6.1/10, right in line with the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Arlington
Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Buckingham
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Arlington Mill
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
North Highland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
North Highland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Douglas Park
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Virginia Highlands
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lyon Park
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Addison Heights
7
/ 10 · Elevated
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