Eviction Risk in Penrose , Arlington
Tract 51013102500 · Arlington County, VA · pop 5,452 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Census tract 51013102500 sits in the Penrose neighborhood of Arlington, Virginia. It has a population of 5,452 and an eviction-risk score of 5.0/10 (Moderate tier). 30% of renters here pay 30%+ of their household income on rent, with 16% severely cost-burdened (≥50%). Median gross rent is $1,943/month against a median household income of $118,284 — roughly 20% rent-to-income at the medians.
Racial & ethnic composition
White (non-Hispanic) Neighborhood — 5,309 residents. Source: ACS 5-year 2023 (Table B03002, tract level).
- Hispanic / Latino 12%
- White (non-Hispanic) 62.2%
- Black (non-Hispanic) 15.2%
- Asian (non-Hispanic) 7%
- Other / Multiracial 3.7%
How the 5.0/10 score is composed
| Signal | Score | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Filing rate (county) | 5.1 | Eviction Lab via counties |
| State political climate | 3.2 | states.state_political_baseline |
| Regional political climate | 8.2 | 2024 county presidential margin |
| Local political climate | 8.5 | Arlington (inherited) |
| Rent control risk | 4.0 | Arlington (inherited) |
| Eviction process difficulty | 5.5 | state law |
| Tenant organizing strength | 7.0 | Arlington (inherited) |
| Housing court bias | 6.0 | Arlington (inherited) |
| Economic stress (tract) | 1.8 | this tract poverty rate |
| Supply constraint (tract) | 3.4 | tract rent vs county FMR |
SVI percentile: 16
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 6%Socioeconomic
- 4%Household composition
- 56%Racial/ethnic minority
- 73%Housing & transportation
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 42Total filings over 1 yrs
- 2.21%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.2%Peak (2016)
- 42Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.0%Housing insecurity
- 4.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.7%Food insecurity
- 5.1%SNAP enrollment
- 5.1%Transit barriers
- 6.9%No health insurance
- 13.8%Frequent mental distress
- 19.2%Any disability
About tract 51013102500
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013102500?
Census tract 51013102500 in the Penrose neighborhood scores 5.0/10 (Moderate tier). The composite blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent burden + poverty signals.
What is the median rent in tract 51013102500?
Median gross rent is $1,943/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.
What is the poverty rate in tract 51013102500?
7.4% of residents in tract 51013102500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,452.
How socially vulnerable is tract 51013102500?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 16th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 6th, household 4th, minority 56th, housing 73th.
Is tract 51013102500 considered part of Penrose?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013102500 fall within Penrose (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51013102500?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 42 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51013102500 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.21% of renter households, peaking at 2.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
What share of households in tract 51013102500 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.8% also reported utility shutoff threats — a frequent precursor to eviction filings.