Neighborhood · Ranked #17,650 of 84,120 nationally

Fairlington Green Eviction Risk: Elevated , Arlington

Tract 51013102904 · Arlington County, VA · pop 2,721 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Tract 51013102904 sits in the Fairlington Green area of Arlington eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 6.1/10. It is home to 2,721 residents. 88% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Risk score

6.1

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 41% Stable renters 47% Owners 12%

Tract context

Occupied units1,670

Renter share88.1%

SVI overall0.47

Poverty rate6.0%

Median income$112,460

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Arlington and the region

Centroid at 38.8396, -77.0904 · click any tract to drill in

Why Fairlington Green scores 6.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Arlington

8.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.2

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

6.0% poverty · this tract

1.5

Supply constraint

$2,449 rent vs county FMR

5.6

Rent control risk

Inherited from Arlington

4.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Arlington

7.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Arlington

6.0

How Fairlington Green compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 47

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

56%Socioeconomic
6%Household composition
63%Racial/ethnic minority
68%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

9.5%Housing insecurity
5.8%Utility-shutoff threat
9.1%Food insecurity
6.3%SNAP enrollment
6.0%Transit barriers
7.6%No health insurance
15.5%Frequent mental distress
20.8%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Fairlington Green

The severe-burden share is 26%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The dominant input is local political climate at 8.5/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.5/10.

On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. 47% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Arlington County average of 38.9%. SNAP participation runs 6.3% against 15.2% nationally.

Food insecurity runs 9.1% against 17.8% nationally. On the national scale it lands near the 79th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 5.2/10.

Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.9 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

It tracks the Arlington County average of 5.9 closely. Average gross rent is $2,449, close to the Arlington average.

Annual rent works out to 26% of average household income of $112,460.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51013102904

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013102904?

Census tract 51013102904 in the Fairlington Green neighborhood scores 6.1/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51013102904?

Median gross rent is $2,449/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51013102904?

6.0% of residents in tract 51013102904 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,721.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51013102904?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 47th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 56th, household 6th, minority 63th, housing 68th.

Is tract 51013102904 considered part of Fairlington Green?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013102904 fall within Fairlington Green (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51013102904 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51013102904 compare to Arlington overall?

Tract 51013102904 scores 6.1/10, right in line with the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Arlington

Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.