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Neighborhood · Ranked #28,095 of 84,120 nationally

South Fairlington Eviction Risk: Moderate , Arlington

Tract 51013103000 · Arlington County, VA · pop 3,569 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

Census tract 51013103000 covers part of the South Fairlington area of Arlington, VA, and scores 5.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,569. Cost burden runs 20% here against 38.9% across Arlington County.

Risk score
5.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5% Stable renters 21% Owners 74%
Tract context
Occupied units1,633
Renter share26.7%
SVI overall0.02
Poverty rate0.7%
Median income$182,431

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In South Fairlington
Moderate
Within parent city
11 th percentile
Rank, 11th percentileLowHigh
#63 of 71 tracts In Arlington
Very Low
Within county
10 th percentile
Rank, 10th percentileLowHigh
#64 of 71 tracts In Arlington County
Very Low
Within state
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#370 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Arlington and the region

Centroid at 38.8337, -77.0894 · click any tract to drill in

Why South Fairlington scores 5.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.7% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,749 rent vs county FMR
6.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0

How South Fairlington compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
South Fairlington risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.35.3This tracttract 103000Arlington: 6.06.0Arlingtonparent cityCounty: 5.95.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 2

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 0.22%Avg annual filing rate
  • 0.2%Peak (2016)
  • 1Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in South Fairlington

Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.5/10.

Running hot, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. The voucher gap is 18.8%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Average gross rent is $2,749, 18% above the Arlington average.

The filing record is not thin: 1 evictions over 1 years of observation. Adults with no health insurance runs 4.3% against 11.3% nationally.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.1% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Against the Arlington County average of 5.9, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.6 points. The worst year on record was 2016, when 0.2% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 0.2% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 67% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.2/10.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51013103000

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013103000?

Census tract 51013103000 in the South Fairlington neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51013103000?

Median gross rent is $2,749/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 20% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51013103000?

0.7% of residents in tract 51013103000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,569.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51013103000?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 2th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 0th, household 19th, minority 48th, housing 7th.
Q5

Is tract 51013103000 considered part of South Fairlington?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013103000 fall within South Fairlington (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51013103000?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51013103000 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.22% of renter households, peaking at 0.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51013103000 struggle to pay rent?

About 4.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51013103000 compare to Arlington overall?

Tract 51013103000 scores 5.3/10, lower than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Arlington

Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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