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Neighborhood · Ranked #23,808 of 84,120 nationally

Aurora Hills Eviction Risk: Moderate , Arlington

Tract 51013103700 · Arlington County, VA · pop 2,493 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

Census tract 51013103700 covers part of the Aurora Hills area of Arlington, VA, and scores 5.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,493. The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 10/10.

Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5% Stable renters 9% Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units926
Renter share13.1%
SVI overall0.07
Poverty rate4.6%
Median income$232,083

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Aurora Hills
Moderate
Within parent city
36 th percentile
Rank, 36th percentileLowHigh
#46 of 71 tracts In Arlington
Low
Within county
41 th percentile
Rank, 41st percentileLowHigh
#42 of 71 tracts In Arlington County
Moderate
Within state
89 th percentile
Rank, 89th percentileLowHigh
#251 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Arlington and the region

Centroid at 38.8500, -77.0628 · click any tract to drill in

Why Aurora Hills scores 5.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.6% poverty · this tract
1.2
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0

How Aurora Hills compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Aurora Hills risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.55.5This tracttract 103700Arlington: 6.06.0Arlingtonparent cityCounty: 5.95.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 7

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 0.88%Avg annual filing rate
  • 0.9%Peak (2016)
  • 1Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Aurora Hills

At $3,501 a month, rents run 51% over what the rest of Arlington commands. The voucher gap is 51.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.2/10. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.5/10.

SNAP participation runs 2.9% against 15.2% nationally. Housing insecurity runs 4.6% against 14.2% nationally.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 1 filings here across 1 tracked years. 35% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Arlington County average of 38.9%.

The worst year on record was 2016, when 0.9% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 0.9% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #23,808 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Only 13% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.6/10.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51013103700

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013103700?

Census tract 51013103700 in the Aurora Hills neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51013103700?

Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51013103700?

4.6% of residents in tract 51013103700 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,493.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51013103700?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 7th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 3th, household 54th, minority 37th, housing 7th.
Q5

Is tract 51013103700 considered part of Aurora Hills?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013103700 fall within Aurora Hills (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51013103700?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51013103700 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.88% of renter households, peaking at 0.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51013103700 struggle to pay rent?

About 4.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51013103700 compare to Arlington overall?

Tract 51013103700 scores 5.5/10, lower than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Arlington

Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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