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Neighborhood · Ranked #79,998 of 84,120 nationally

Spring Grove Eviction Risk: Lower , Bon Air

Tract 51041100106 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 3,851 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

In Spring Grove in Bon Air, census tract 51041100106 scores 5.1/10 for eviction risk. On the national scale it ranks #50,028 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 0% of renter households, a modest level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,620 a month while the average household earns $124,515 a year, roughly 25% of income at the averages. About 6% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
1.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 0% Stable renters 6% Owners 94%
Tract context
Occupied units1,435
Renter share6.1%
SVI overall0.11
Poverty rate5.3%
Median income$124,515

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Spring Grove
Moderate
Within parent city
40 th percentile
Rank, 40th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 6 tracts In Bon Air
Moderate
Within county
14 th percentile
Rank, 14th percentileLowHigh
#65 of 75 tracts In Chesterfield County
Very Low
Within state
19 th percentile
Rank, 19th percentileLowHigh
#1,772 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Bon Air and the region

Centroid at 37.5195, -77.5493 · click any tract to drill in

Why Spring Grove scores 1.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Bon Air
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.3% poverty · this tract
1.3
Supply constraint
$2,620 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bon Air
5.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bon Air
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bon Air
4.5

How Spring Grove compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Spring Grove risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.41.4This tracttract 100106Bon Air: 3.53.5Bon Airparent cityCounty: 2.42.4Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 11

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 72Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 10.14%Avg annual filing rate
  • 14.8%Peak (2014)
  • 14Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2010 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510411001062010: 4 filings (3.88/100 renter HHs)2011: 13 filings (12.04/100 renter HHs)2012: 4 filings (3.70/100 renter HHs)2013: 8 filings (7.41/100 renter HHs)2014: 16 filings (14.81/100 renter HHs)2015: 13 filings (12.04/100 renter HHs)2016: 14 filings (17.07/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 250% over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Spring Grove

What moves this score most is supply constraint at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Bon Air, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Chesterfield County average of 5.8 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 11th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 72 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 10.1% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 14.8% of renter households in 2014.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51041100106

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100106?

Census tract 51041100106 in the Spring Grove neighborhood scores 1.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51041100106?

Median gross rent is $2,620/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 0% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100106?

5.3% of residents in tract 51041100106 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,851.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100106?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 11th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 18th, household 36th, minority 28th, housing 7th.
Q5

Is tract 51041100106 considered part of Spring Grove?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100106 fall within Spring Grove (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100106?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 72 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100106 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.14% of renter households, peaking at 14.8% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51041100106 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51041100106 compare to Bon Air overall?

Tract 51041100106 scores 1.4/10, lower than the parent city of Bon Air at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bon Air; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Bon Air

Top eight tracts in Bon Air ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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