Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Foundry Run Eviction Risk: Lower , Bon Air
Tract 51041100926 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 6,768 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 51041100926 covers part of the Foundry Run area of Bon Air, VA, and scores 3/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 6,768 residents. Against Chesterfield County at 42.3%, about three-quarters of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 85%
Tract context
Occupied units2,447
Renter share15.5%
SVI overall0.15
Poverty rate5.4%
Median income$211,851
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
10
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bon Air and the region
Centroid at 37.5390, -77.6259 · click any tract to drill in
Why Foundry Run scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bon Air
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.4% poverty · this tract
1.3
Supply constraint
$1,686 rent vs county FMR
4.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bon Air
5.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bon Air
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bon Air
4.5
How Foundry Run compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 15
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 8%Socioeconomic
- 42%Household composition
- 31%Racial/ethnic minority
- 25%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 230Total filings over 7 yrs
- 10.73%Avg annual filing rate
- 16.1%Peak (2015)
- 20Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 50% over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 4.8%Housing insecurity
- 3.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 5.2%Food insecurity
- 3.8%SNAP enrollment
- 3.7%Transit barriers
- 4.0%No health insurance
- 12.4%Frequent mental distress
- 24.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Foundry Run
The severe-burden share is 33%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.6/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 1.3/10.
Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.6/10. Food insecurity runs 5.2% against 17.8% nationally. Against the Chesterfield County average of 4.2, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.2 points.
Court records carry 230 eviction filings across 7 observed years. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.4% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Filings peaked in 2015 at 16.1% of renter households.
In a typical year about 10.7% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
At 16% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. Social vulnerability reads 2.3/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51041100926
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100926?
Census tract 51041100926 in the Foundry Run neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51041100926?
Median gross rent is $1,686/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 72% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100926?
5.4% of residents in tract 51041100926 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,768.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100926?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 15th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 8th, household 42th, minority 31th, housing 25th.
Q5
Is tract 51041100926 considered part of Foundry Run?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100926 fall within Foundry Run (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100926?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 230 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100926 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.73% of renter households, peaking at 16.1% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51041100926 struggle to pay rent?
About 4.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51041100926 compare to Bon Air overall?
Tract 51041100926 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Bon Air at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bon Air; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bon Air
Top eight tracts in Bon Air ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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