Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Oakwood Eviction Risk: Lower , Franconia
Tract 51059420202 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,400 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
With a score of 3.4/10, tract 51059420202 in the Oakwood area of Franconia, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,400. Cost burden runs 27% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%
Stable renters 40%
Owners 45%
Tract context
Occupied units1,168
Renter share55.4%
SVI overall0.10
Poverty rate0.2%
Median income$132,984
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
21
th percentile
Low
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Franconia and the region
Centroid at 38.7925, -77.1414 · click any tract to drill in
Why Oakwood scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Franconia
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,342 rent vs county FMR
5.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Franconia
3.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Franconia
5.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Franconia
2.8
How Oakwood compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 10
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 16%Socioeconomic
- 2%Household composition
- 75%Racial/ethnic minority
- 25%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 107Total filings over 4 yrs
- 4.08%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.7%Peak (2016)
- 49Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 158% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Oakwood. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.8%Housing insecurity
- 5.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.2%Food insecurity
- 5.6%SNAP enrollment
- 5.3%Transit barriers
- 5.6%No health insurance
- 13.7%Frequent mental distress
- 18.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Oakwood
Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.3/10.
Food insecurity runs 8.2% against 17.8% nationally. SNAP participation runs 5.6% against 15.2% nationally.
Running cool, housing-court posture reads 2.8/10. It sits 0.9 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3.
Court records carry 107 eviction filings across 4 observed years. 9% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Average gross rent is $2,342, 10% below the Franconia average.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 7.7% of renter households. In a typical year about 4.1% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 29% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059420202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059420202?
Census tract 51059420202 in the Oakwood neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059420202?
Median gross rent is $2,342/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 27% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059420202?
0.2% of residents in tract 51059420202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,400.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059420202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 10th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 16th, household 2th, minority 75th, housing 25th.
Q5
Is tract 51059420202 considered part of Oakwood?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059420202 fall within Oakwood (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059420202?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 107 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059420202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.08% of renter households, peaking at 7.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059420202 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059420202 compare to Franconia overall?
Tract 51059420202 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Franconia at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Franconia; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Franconia
Top eight tracts in Franconia ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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