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Neighborhood · Franconia, VA

Oakwood Eviction Risk: Lower

2 census tracts · pop 5,256 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3.2/10 · range 3–3.4

Oakwood takes in 2 census tracts of Franconia, VA and houses 5,256 people. The Eviction Risk Score is 3.2/10, in the Lower tier. Cost burden runs about half against 22.1% citywide, putting Oakwood 29.4% over its own city.

The clearest offset is economic stress, at 1/10. The voucher gap is 25.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears. Sitting well above the midpoint is supply constraint at 7.5/10.

Filings are well documented here: 121 across 2 observed tracts. SNAP participation is 5.0% of households versus 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity affects 7.4% of adults, 10.4 points below the national rate.

Running cool is rent-regulation exposure, at 2.8/10. The worst year on record was 2016, when filings touched 7.7% of renter households. At $2,896 a month, rents sit 11% over what the rest of Franconia commands.

Among the 5 mapped neighborhoods of Franconia, it ranks #5 by risk, the lower third. Judgments average 1.1% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. For a like-for-like read, Springfield Forest and Amberleigh score within a fraction of it.

Poverty sits at 1%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

The area figure travels well to individual addresses here, though the per-tract table below still carries the detail. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.

Risk score
3.2
Lower
2 tracts · population-weighted
Oakwood vs Franconia How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
51.5% +133%
Franconia: 22.1%
Average gross rent
$2,896 +11%
Franconia: $2,605
Average HH income
$163,218 +7%
Franconia: $152,007
Poverty rate
0.9% -70%
Franconia: 3.0%
Renter share
31.4% +31%
Franconia: 24.0%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Oakwood and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 2 tracts span score 3–3.4

Why Oakwood scores 3.2

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.1–7.1 across tracts
7.1
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 2.4–8.3 across tracts
5.1
Rent control risk
52% of income on rent · Range 2.6–3.1 across tracts
2.8
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.0–3.3 across tracts
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
31% renter households · Range 2.5–5.2 across tracts
3.7
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 2.8–3.2 across tracts
3.0
Economic stress
0.9% below poverty line · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts
1.0
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 5.1–9.5 across tracts
7.5
Risk score comparison

Oakwood vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Oakwood score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Oakwood: 3.23.2OakwoodNeighborhoodParent city: 4.04.0Parent cityhost cityState: 4.34.3Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.15.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

2 tracts in Oakwood

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
51059420202 3.4 2,400 27% $2,342
51059420203 3 2,856 72% $3,361
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 8

Pop-weighted across 2 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 10%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 15%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 64%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 15%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Oakwood

Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 121Total filings (sum)
  • 3.35%Avg annual filing rate
  • 7.7%Peak year (2016)
  • 5.21%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Oakwood

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Oakwood

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Oakwood?

Oakwood scores 3.2/10 (Lower tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Oakwood compare to Franconia overall?

Oakwood scores 0.8 points lower than Franconia overall (4/10). Renters spend 52% of income on rent vs 22% citywide. Average rent: $2,896 vs $2,605.
Q3

What is the average rent in Oakwood?

Average gross rent in Oakwood is $2,896/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 52% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Oakwood residents are renters?

31% of Oakwood households are renter-occupied (vs 24% in Franconia). The neighborhood has 5,256 residents.
Q5

Is Oakwood a high social-vulnerability area?

Oakwood sits in the 8th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Oakwood have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Oakwood is census tract 51059420202 (score 3.4/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3 to 3.4, a spread of 0.4 points.
Q7

How safe is Oakwood for landlords?

Oakwood carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3.2/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Franconia as a whole (4/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Oakwood?

Oakwood has 5,231 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (51.5%), Black (non-Hispanic) (17.8%), Hispanic / Latino (12.3%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Oakwood

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Franconia

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Oakwood.

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