Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Keene Mill Heights Eviction Risk: Lower , Burke
Tract 51059432500 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,230 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
Tract 51059432500 sits in the Keene Mill Heights area of Burke eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.4/10. Population here is 6,230. Cost burden runs 15% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 1%
Stable renters 3%
Owners 96%
Tract context
Occupied units1,868
Renter share3.5%
SVI overall0.09
Poverty rate1.2%
Median income$190,066
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
20
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Burke and the region
Centroid at 38.7552, -77.2526 · click any tract to drill in
Why Keene Mill Heights scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Burke
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,221 rent vs county FMR
8.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Burke
4.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Burke
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Burke
3.6
How Keene Mill Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 9
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 12%Socioeconomic
- 77%Household composition
- 52%Racial/ethnic minority
- 1%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 12Total filings over 4 yrs
- 1.52%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.9%Peak (2016)
- 5Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 400% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Keene Mill Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.4%Housing insecurity
- 3.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 5.5%Food insecurity
- 3.4%SNAP enrollment
- 3.7%Transit barriers
- 4.5%No health insurance
- 11.2%Frequent mental distress
- 19.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Keene Mill Heights
The voucher gap is 39.2%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10.
Running hot, supply constraint reads 8.9/10. Food insecurity runs 5.5% against 17.8% nationally.
SNAP participation runs 3.4% against 15.2% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10.
Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.9 points. The filing record is not thin: 12 evictions over 4 years of observation.
At $3,221 a month, rents run 11% over what the rest of Burke commands. The worst year on record was 2016, when 3.9% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 1.5% of renter households face a filing.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059432500
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059432500?
Census tract 51059432500 in the Keene Mill Heights neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059432500?
Median gross rent is $3,221/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 15% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059432500?
1.2% of residents in tract 51059432500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,230.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059432500?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 9th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 12th, household 77th, minority 52th, housing 1th.
Q5
Is tract 51059432500 considered part of Keene Mill Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059432500 fall within Keene Mill Heights (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059432500?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 12 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059432500 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.52% of renter households, peaking at 3.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059432500 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059432500 compare to Burke overall?
Tract 51059432500 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Burke at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Burke eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Burke
Top eight tracts in Burke ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Keene Mill Heights
3.8
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Burke View
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Five Forks
3.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Fairfax Park
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Burke Village
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Townes of Burke
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Townes of Burke
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Edgewater
3.4
/ 10 · Low
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