Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Townes of Burke Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 51059431802 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,297 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
With a score of 3.4/10, tract 51059431802 in the Townes of Burke area of Burke, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,297 residents. Severe burden reaches 42%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 90%
Tract context
Occupied units1,017
Renter share10.9%
SVI overall0.15
Poverty rate2.0%
Median income$181,458
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
44
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
18
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Burke and the region
Centroid at 38.8080, -77.2755 · click any tract to drill in
Why Townes of Burke scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Burke
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.0% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,360 rent vs county FMR
5.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Burke
4.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Burke
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Burke
3.6
How Townes of Burke compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 15
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 17%Socioeconomic
- 67%Household composition
- 54%Racial/ethnic minority
- 4%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 18Total filings over 4 yrs
- 6.58%Avg annual filing rate
- 8.2%Peak (2016)
- 8Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 167% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Townes of Burke. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.4%Housing insecurity
- 3.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.1%Food insecurity
- 4.3%SNAP enrollment
- 4.4%Transit barriers
- 6.3%No health insurance
- 11.1%Frequent mental distress
- 21.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Townes of Burke
Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 59% of renters here are cost-burdened. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10.
SNAP participation runs 4.3% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 7.1% against 17.8% nationally.
At $2,360 a month, rents run 18% under what the rest of Burke commands. It sits 0.9 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3. Court records carry 18 eviction filings across 4 observed years.
On the softer side, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.9/10. The worst year on record was 2016, when 8.2% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 6.6% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #59,654 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. At 11% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059431802
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059431802?
Census tract 51059431802 in the Townes of Burke neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059431802?
Median gross rent is $2,360/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059431802?
2.0% of residents in tract 51059431802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,297.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059431802?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 15th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 17th, household 67th, minority 54th, housing 4th.
Q5
Is tract 51059431802 considered part of Townes of Burke?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059431802 fall within Townes of Burke (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059431802?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 18 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059431802 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.58% of renter households, peaking at 8.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059431802 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059431802 compare to Burke overall?
Tract 51059431802 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Burke at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Burke eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Burke
Top eight tracts in Burke ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Keene Mill Heights
3.8
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Burke View
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Five Forks
3.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Fairfax Park
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Burke Village
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Townes of Burke
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Edgewater
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Keene Mill Heights
3.4
/ 10 · Low
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