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Neighborhood · Ranked #82,639 of 84,120 nationally

Townes of Burke Eviction Risk: Lower

Tract 51059431802 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,297 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Census tract 51059431802 covers the Townes of Burke area of Burke, home to 3,297 residents. For landlords it grades 5.5/10, a moderate reading. It lands near the 55th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

About 59% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 42% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,360 a month against an average household income of $181,458 a year, roughly 16% of income at the averages. Renters make up 11% of occupied homes.

Risk score
1.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6% Stable renters 4% Owners 90%
Tract context
Occupied units1,017
Renter share10.9%
SVI overall0.15
Poverty rate2.0%
Median income$181,458

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Townes of Burke
Very High
Within parent city
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 10 tracts In Burke
Elevated
Within county
24 th percentile
Rank, 24th percentileLowHigh
#209 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Low
Within state
9 th percentile
Rank, 9th percentileLowHigh
#1,987 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Burke and the region

Centroid at 38.8080, -77.2755 · click any tract to drill in

Why Townes of Burke scores 1.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Burke
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.0% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,360 rent vs county FMR
5.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Burke
4.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Burke
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Burke
3.6

How Townes of Burke compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Townes of Burke risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.11.1This tracttract 431802Burke: 3.63.6Burkeparent cityCounty: 1.51.5Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 15

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 18Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 6.58%Avg annual filing rate
  • 8.2%Peak (2016)
  • 8Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594318022011: 3 filings (5.45/100 renter HHs)2012: 4 filings (7.27/100 renter HHs)2013: 3 filings (5.45/100 renter HHs)2016: 8 filings (8.16/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 167% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Townes of Burke. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Townes of Burke

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 5.2/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Burke eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 18 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 6.6% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 8.2% of renter households in 2016.

In CDC survey modeling, about 6.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 3.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059431802

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059431802?

Census tract 51059431802 in the Townes of Burke neighborhood scores 1.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059431802?

Median gross rent is $2,360/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059431802?

2.0% of residents in tract 51059431802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,297.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059431802?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 15th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 17th, household 67th, minority 54th, housing 4th.
Q5

Is tract 51059431802 considered part of Townes of Burke?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059431802 fall within Townes of Burke (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059431802?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 18 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059431802 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.58% of renter households, peaking at 8.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059431802 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059431802 compare to Burke overall?

Tract 51059431802 scores 1.1/10, lower than the parent city of Burke at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Burke eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Burke

Top eight tracts in Burke ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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