Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #9,433 of 84,120 nationally
Glen Forest Eviction Risk: Elevated , Bailey's Crossroads
Tract 51059451502 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 5,430 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
51059451502 is a census tract in the Glen Forest area of Bailey's Crossroads, VA. It scores 7.7/10 for landlords. It is home to 5,430 residents. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 3.4 points.
Risk score
7.7
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 40%
Stable renters 31%
Owners 29%
Tract context
Occupied units2,246
Renter share70.7%
SVI overall0.83
Poverty rate16.5%
Median income$88,056
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
99
th percentile
Very High
Within state
100
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bailey's Crossroads and the region
Centroid at 38.8534, -77.1269 · click any tract to drill in
Why Glen Forest scores 7.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
16.5% poverty · this tract
4.1
Supply constraint
$2,026 rent vs county FMR
3.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
8.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
9.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
8.2
How Glen Forest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 83
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 84%Socioeconomic
- 59%Household composition
- 70%Racial/ethnic minority
- 81%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 374Total filings over 4 yrs
- 6.23%Avg annual filing rate
- 8.0%Peak (2011)
- 76Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 37% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.7%Housing insecurity
- 7.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.2%Food insecurity
- 10.3%SNAP enrollment
- 7.6%Transit barriers
- 12.1%No health insurance
- 13.3%Frequent mental distress
- 29.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Glen Forest
Severe burden reaches 32%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 57% of renters here are cost-burdened. The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 9.4/10.
This is renter territory: 71% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.4/10. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.2/10.
Court records carry 374 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Filings peaked in 2011 at 8.0% of renter households.
In a typical year about 6.2% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 89th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.5/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 3.5 points hotter.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059451502
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059451502?
Census tract 51059451502 in the Glen Forest neighborhood scores 7.7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059451502?
Median gross rent is $2,026/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059451502?
16.5% of residents in tract 51059451502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,430.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059451502?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 83th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 84th, household 59th, minority 70th, housing 81th.
Q5
Is tract 51059451502 considered part of Glen Forest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059451502 fall within Glen Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059451502?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 374 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059451502 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.23% of renter households, peaking at 8.0% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059451502 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059451502 compare to Bailey's Crossroads overall?
Tract 51059451502 scores 7.7/10, higher than the parent city of Bailey's Crossroads at 6.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bailey's Crossroads eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bailey's Crossroads
Top eight tracts in Bailey's Crossroads ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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