Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #28,095 of 84,120 nationally
Indian Springs Eviction Risk: Moderate , Springfield
Tract 51059452501 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,493 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
51059452501 is a census tract in the Indian Springs area of Springfield, VA. It scores 5.3/10 for landlords. The severe-burden share is 28%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%
Stable renters 13%
Owners 82%
Tract context
Occupied units1,097
Renter share18.0%
SVI overall0.60
Poverty rate1.7%
Median income$156,845
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
79
th percentile
High
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Springfield and the region
Centroid at 38.8092, -77.1701 · click any tract to drill in
Why Indian Springs scores 5.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Springfield
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.7% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,828 rent vs county FMR
7.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Springfield
9.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Springfield
7.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Springfield
6.7
How Indian Springs compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 60
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 65%Socioeconomic
- 23%Household composition
- 74%Racial/ethnic minority
- 61%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 29Total filings over 4 yrs
- 3.32%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.2%Peak (2011)
- 9Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.9%Housing insecurity
- 5.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.4%Food insecurity
- 8.0%SNAP enrollment
- 6.5%Transit barriers
- 10.0%No health insurance
- 13.0%Frequent mental distress
- 26.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Indian Springs
The score leans hardest on rent-regulation exposure at 9/10. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 28% of renters here are cost-burdened.
On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10. The voucher gap is 22.2%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. On the high side, local political climate reads 7.4/10.
It sits 1.0 points above the Fairfax County average of 4.3. Court records carry 29 eviction filings across 4 observed years. SNAP participation runs 8.0% against 15.2% nationally.
Filings peaked in 2011 at 3.2% of renter households. In a typical year about 3.3% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #28,095 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
At 18% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059452501
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059452501?
Census tract 51059452501 in the Indian Springs neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059452501?
Median gross rent is $2,828/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 28% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059452501?
1.7% of residents in tract 51059452501 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,493.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059452501?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 60th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 65th, household 23th, minority 74th, housing 61th.
Q5
Is tract 51059452501 considered part of Indian Springs?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059452501 fall within Indian Springs (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059452501?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 29 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059452501 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.32% of renter households, peaking at 3.2% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059452501 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059452501 compare to Springfield overall?
Tract 51059452501 scores 5.3/10, lower than the parent city of Springfield at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Springfield eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Springfield
Top eight tracts in Springfield ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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