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Neighborhood · Ranked #50,654 of 84,120 nationally

Harvest Green Cluster Eviction Risk: Lower , Herndon

Tract 51059480505 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,129 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

51059480505 is a census tract in the Harvest Green Cluster area of Reston, VA. It scores 3.9/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,129. Cost burden runs 18% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County.

Risk score
3.9
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8% Stable renters 36% Owners 56%
Tract context
Occupied units1,522
Renter share44.1%
SVI overall0.02
Poverty rate5.1%
Median income$140,313

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Harvest Green Cluster
Very Low
Within parent city
44 th percentile
Rank, 44th percentileLowHigh
#11 of 19 tracts In Herndon
Moderate
Within county
53 th percentile
Rank, 53rd percentileLowHigh
#129 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Moderate
Within state
49 th percentile
Rank, 49th percentileLowHigh
#1,111 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Herndon and the region

Centroid at 38.9710, -77.3558 · click any tract to drill in

Why Harvest Green Cluster scores 3.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Herndon
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.1% poverty · this tract
1.3
Supply constraint
$2,291 rent vs county FMR
4.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Herndon
4.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Herndon
8.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Herndon
3.8

How Harvest Green Cluster compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Harvest Green Cluster risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.93.9This tracttract 480505Herndon: 4.44.4Herndonparent cityCounty: 4.34.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 2

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 130Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 4.01%Avg annual filing rate
  • 5.3%Peak (2012)
  • 25Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594805052011: 24 filings (2.94/100 renter HHs)2012: 43 filings (5.27/100 renter HHs)2013: 38 filings (4.66/100 renter HHs)2016: 25 filings (3.17/100 renter HHs)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Harvest Green Cluster. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Harvest Green Cluster

The main counterweight is economic stress at 1.3/10. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8/10.

SNAP participation runs 3.3% against 15.2% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.2/10.

The filing record is not thin: 130 evictions over 4 years of observation. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.6% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Filings peaked in 2012 at 5.3% of renter households.

In a typical year about 4.0% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 40th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.2/10. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. It tracks the Fairfax County average of 4.3 closely.

Average gross rent is $2,291, close to the Reston average.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059480505

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059480505?

Census tract 51059480505 in the Harvest Green Cluster neighborhood scores 3.9/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059480505?

Median gross rent is $2,291/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 18% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059480505?

5.1% of residents in tract 51059480505 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,129.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059480505?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 2th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 3th, household 1th, minority 42th, housing 22th.
Q5

Is tract 51059480505 considered part of Harvest Green Cluster?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059480505 fall within Harvest Green Cluster (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059480505?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 130 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059480505 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.01% of renter households, peaking at 5.3% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059480505 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059480505 compare to Herndon overall?

Tract 51059480505 scores 3.9/10, lower than the parent city of Herndon at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Herndon eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Herndon

Top eight tracts in Herndon ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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