Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #78,212 of 84,120 nationally
Sledd Run Eviction Risk: Lower , Mechanicsville
Tract 51085321201 · Hanover County, VA · pop 4,585 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
The Sledd Run neighborhood of Mechanicsville anchors census tract 51085321201, which lands at 5.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 59% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 33% of renter households, a high level, and 4% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,601 monthly, set against $103,269 in average yearly household income, roughly 19% of income at the averages. Renters make up 24% of occupied homes.
Risk score
1.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8%
Stable renters 16%
Owners 76%
Tract context
Occupied units1,940
Renter share24.1%
SVI overall0.10
Poverty rate2.8%
Median income$103,269
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
38
th percentile
Low
Within county
17
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
25
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mechanicsville and the region
Centroid at 37.5867, -77.3295 · click any tract to drill in
Why Sledd Run scores 1.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mechanicsville
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.7
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,601 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mechanicsville
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mechanicsville
5.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mechanicsville
5.4
How Sledd Run compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 10
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 18%Socioeconomic
- 12%Household composition
- 25%Racial/ethnic minority
- 16%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Sledd Run. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.6%Housing insecurity
- 5.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.6%Food insecurity
- 7.6%SNAP enrollment
- 5.9%Transit barriers
- 7.0%No health insurance
- 16.3%Frequent mental distress
- 30.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Sledd Run
The score leans hardest on rent-control risk at 7.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Mechanicsville eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Hanover County average of 5.2 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 10th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
In CDC survey modeling, about 8.6% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51085321201
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51085321201?
Census tract 51085321201 in the Sledd Run neighborhood scores 1.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51085321201?
Median gross rent is $1,601/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 33% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51085321201?
2.8% of residents in tract 51085321201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,585.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51085321201?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 10th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 18th, household 12th, minority 25th, housing 16th.
Q5
Is tract 51085321201 considered part of Sledd Run?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51085321201 fall within Sledd Run (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51085321201 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51085321201 compare to Mechanicsville overall?
Tract 51085321201 scores 1.6/10, lower than the parent city of Mechanicsville at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mechanicsville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mechanicsville
Top eight tracts in Mechanicsville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Sledd Run
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Hanover Grove
2.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
51085321100
2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Sharon Park
1.7
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Cherrydale
1.7
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Gaines Mill
1.5
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Avondale
1.3
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Pine Hill
1.3
/ 10 · Very Low
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