Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
Sledd Run Eviction Risk: Moderate , Mechanicsville
Tract 51085321202 · Hanover County, VA · pop 4,364 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
Census tract 51085321202 covers part of the Sledd Run area of Mechanicsville, VA, and scores 5.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,364. Cost burden runs 61% here against 36.2% across Hanover County.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 36%
Stable renters 23%
Owners 41%
Tract context
Occupied units1,754
Renter share59.5%
SVI overall0.65
Poverty rate16.2%
Median income$68,750
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
92
th percentile
Very High
Within state
86
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mechanicsville and the region
Centroid at 37.5858, -77.3462 · click any tract to drill in
Why Sledd Run scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mechanicsville
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.7
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
16.2% poverty · this tract
4.1
Supply constraint
$1,378 rent vs county FMR
3.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mechanicsville
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mechanicsville
5.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mechanicsville
5.4
How Sledd Run compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 65
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 51%Socioeconomic
- 84%Household composition
- 43%Racial/ethnic minority
- 62%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Sledd Run. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.9%Housing insecurity
- 10.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 18.6%Food insecurity
- 18.0%SNAP enrollment
- 10.3%Transit barriers
- 9.8%No health insurance
- 20.0%Frequent mental distress
- 35.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Sledd Run
29% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.7/10.
On the high side, local political climate reads 8.6/10. It sits 1.5 points above the Hanover County average of 3.9.
At $1,378 a month, rents run 20% under what the rest of Mechanicsville commands. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.5/10. On the national scale it lands near the 70th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 6.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.
Annual rent works out to 24% of average household income of $68,750.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51085321202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51085321202?
Census tract 51085321202 in the Sledd Run neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51085321202?
Median gross rent is $1,378/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51085321202?
16.2% of residents in tract 51085321202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,364.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51085321202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 65th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 51th, household 84th, minority 43th, housing 62th.
Q5
Is tract 51085321202 considered part of Sledd Run?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51085321202 fall within Sledd Run (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51085321202 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51085321202 compare to Mechanicsville overall?
Tract 51085321202 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Mechanicsville at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mechanicsville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mechanicsville
Top eight tracts in Mechanicsville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Hanover Grove
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
51085321100
4.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Sharon Park
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Cherrydale
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Sledd Run
3.8
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Gaines Mill
3.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Avondale
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Pine Hill
3.3
/ 10 · Low
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