Neighborhood · Ranked #53,267 of 84,120 nationally

Sledd Run Eviction Risk: Lower , Mechanicsville

Tract 51085321202 · Hanover County, VA · pop 4,364 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi

Eviction risk in the Sledd Run area of Mechanicsville centers on tract 51085321202, which scores 6.4/10 (Elevated tier) and is home to 4,364 residents. That is riskier than about 84% of US census tracts.

61% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 29% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,378 a month while the average household earns $68,750 a year, roughly 24% of income at the averages. Renters make up 59% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

3.3

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 36% Stable renters 23% Owners 41%

Tract context

Occupied units1,754

Renter share59.5%

SVI overall0.65

Poverty rate16.2%

Median income$68,750

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Mechanicsville and the region

Centroid at 37.5858, -77.3462 · click any tract to drill in

Why Sledd Run scores 3.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Mechanicsville

8.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

3.7

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

16.2% poverty · this tract

4.1

Supply constraint

$1,378 rent vs county FMR

3.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from Mechanicsville

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.3

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Mechanicsville

5.1

Housing court bias

Inherited from Mechanicsville

5.4

How Sledd Run compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 65

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

51%Socioeconomic
84%Household composition
43%Racial/ethnic minority
62%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Sledd Run. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

14.9%Housing insecurity
10.5%Utility-shutoff threat
18.6%Food insecurity
18.0%SNAP enrollment
10.3%Transit barriers
9.8%No health insurance
20.0%Frequent mental distress
35.2%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Sledd Run

The score leans hardest on rent-control risk at 7.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Mechanicsville eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Hanover County average of 5.2 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 14.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.5% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 65th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51085321202

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51085321202?

Census tract 51085321202 in the Sledd Run neighborhood scores 3.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51085321202?

Median gross rent is $1,378/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51085321202?

16.2% of residents in tract 51085321202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,364.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51085321202?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 65th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 51th, household 84th, minority 43th, housing 62th.

Is tract 51085321202 considered part of Sledd Run?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51085321202 fall within Sledd Run (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51085321202 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51085321202 compare to Mechanicsville overall?

Tract 51085321202 scores 3.3/10, right in line with the parent city of Mechanicsville at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mechanicsville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Mechanicsville

Top eight tracts in Mechanicsville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.