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Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally

Sweet Briar Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dumbarton

Tract 51087200409 · Henrico County, VA · pop 2,998 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

With a score of 5.4/10, tract 51087200409 in the Sweet Briar Park area of Laurel, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. 65% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Henrico County average of 47.8%.

Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 35% Stable renters 19% Owners 46%
Tract context
Occupied units789
Renter share54.1%
SVI overall0.64
Poverty rate11.8%
Median income$64,311

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
25 th percentile
Rank, 25th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 5 tracts In Sweet Briar Park
Low
Within parent city
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 5 tracts In Dumbarton
High
Within county
82 th percentile
Rank, 82nd percentileLowHigh
#16 of 85 tracts In Henrico County
High
Within state
86 th percentile
Rank, 86th percentileLowHigh
#302 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Dumbarton and the region

Centroid at 37.6270, -77.5190 · click any tract to drill in

Why Sweet Briar Park scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Dumbarton
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.5
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
11.8% poverty · this tract
3.0
Supply constraint
$1,796 rent vs county FMR
5.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dumbarton
7.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dumbarton
9.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dumbarton
6.0

How Sweet Briar Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Sweet Briar Park risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.4This tracttract 2004095.9Dumbartonparent city4.3Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 64

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 152Total filings over 2 yrs
  • 22.21%Avg annual filing rate
  • 25.4%Peak (2016)
  • 87Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Sweet Briar Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Sweet Briar Park

The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.7/10. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.1/10. Set annual rent against average income of $64,311 and the ratio lands at 34%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.

Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.6/10. 20% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Against the Henrico County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.1 points.

Housing insecurity runs 23.0% against 14.2% nationally. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 152 filings here across 2 tracked years. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 15.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Average gross rent is $1,796, 11% above the Laurel average. Filings peaked in 2016 at 25.4% of renter households.

In a typical year about 22.2% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 70th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 6.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51087200409

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200409?

Census tract 51087200409 in the Sweet Briar Park neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51087200409?

Median gross rent is $1,796/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200409?

11.8% of residents in tract 51087200409 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,998.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200409?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 64th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 66th, household 39th, minority 73th, housing 60th.
Q5

Is tract 51087200409 considered part of Sweet Briar Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200409 fall within Sweet Briar Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51087200409?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 152 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51087200409 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 22.21% of renter households, peaking at 25.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51087200409 struggle to pay rent?

About 23.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51087200409 compare to Dumbarton overall?

Tract 51087200409 scores 5.4/10, lower than the parent city of Dumbarton at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dumbarton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dumbarton

Top eight tracts in Dumbarton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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