Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #23,426 of 84,120 nationally
Wayside Village Eviction Risk: Elevated , Cherry Hill
Tract 51153900803 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,718 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Census tract 51153900803 covers Wayside Village in Cherry Hill, home to 5,718 residents. For landlords it grades 6.7/10, an elevated reading. That is riskier than roughly 90% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
About 69% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 43% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,791 a month against an average household income of $100,458 a year, roughly 21% of income at the averages. About 51% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
6.1
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 36%
Stable renters 16%
Owners 48%
Tract context
Occupied units2,140
Renter share51.3%
SVI overall0.70
Poverty rate17.9%
Median income$100,458
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
92
th percentile
Very High
Within state
89
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Cherry Hill and the region
Centroid at 38.5830, -77.3006 · click any tract to drill in
Why Wayside Village scores 6.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Cherry Hill
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
17.9% poverty · this tract
4.5
Supply constraint
$1,791 rent vs county FMR
2.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Cherry Hill
8.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Cherry Hill
8.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Cherry Hill
6.4
How Wayside Village compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 70
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 65%Socioeconomic
- 87%Household composition
- 84%Racial/ethnic minority
- 38%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 19.9%Housing insecurity
- 13.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 22.7%Food insecurity
- 19.3%SNAP enrollment
- 12.2%Transit barriers
- 12.5%No health insurance
- 18.5%Frequent mental distress
- 31.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Wayside Village
What moves this score most is rent-control risk at 8.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Cherry Hill eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is Black and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 70th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
In CDC survey modeling, about 19.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 13.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153900803
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900803?
Census tract 51153900803 in the Wayside Village neighborhood scores 6.1/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153900803?
Median gross rent is $1,791/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 69% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900803?
17.9% of residents in tract 51153900803 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,718.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900803?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 70th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 65th, household 87th, minority 84th, housing 38th.
Q5
Is tract 51153900803 considered part of Wayside Village?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900803 fall within Wayside Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51153900803 struggle to pay rent?
About 19.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51153900803 compare to Cherry Hill overall?
Tract 51153900803 scores 6.1/10, higher than the parent city of Cherry Hill at 5.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Cherry Hill eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Cherry Hill
Top eight tracts in Cherry Hill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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