Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #32,842 of 84,120 nationally
Crestwood Village Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bull Run
Tract 51153901403 · Prince William County, VA · pop 7,258 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Census tract 51153901403 covers part of the Crestwood Village area of Bull Run, VA, and scores 5/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 7,258 residents. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Risk score
5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 32%
Stable renters 32%
Owners 36%
Tract context
Occupied units2,870
Renter share64.0%
SVI overall0.80
Poverty rate14.2%
Median income$83,986
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
80
th percentile
High
Within state
77
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bull Run and the region
Centroid at 38.7707, -77.5183 · click any tract to drill in
Why Crestwood Village scores 5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bull Run
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
14.2% poverty · this tract
3.6
Supply constraint
$1,902 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bull Run
2.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bull Run
2.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bull Run
2.7
How Crestwood Village compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 80
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 81%Socioeconomic
- 30%Household composition
- 78%Racial/ethnic minority
- 88%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 103Total filings over 1 yrs
- 6.18%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.2%Peak (2016)
- 103Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.7%Housing insecurity
- 9.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 17.1%Food insecurity
- 12.8%SNAP enrollment
- 9.3%Transit barriers
- 12.9%No health insurance
- 16.8%Frequent mental distress
- 29.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Crestwood Village
26% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. 51% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Prince William County average of 43.3%.
Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 2.5/10. Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.6/10. It sits 0.9 points above the Prince William County average of 4.1.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 103 filings here across 1 tracked years. The worst year on record was 2016, when 6.2% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 6.2% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 61st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 8.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $1,902, close to the Bull Run average.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901403
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901403?
Census tract 51153901403 in the Crestwood Village neighborhood scores 5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901403?
Median gross rent is $1,902/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901403?
14.2% of residents in tract 51153901403 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,258.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901403?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 80th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 81th, household 30th, minority 78th, housing 88th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901403 considered part of Crestwood Village?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901403 fall within Crestwood Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901403?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 103 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901403 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.18% of renter households, peaking at 6.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901403 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901403 compare to Bull Run overall?
Tract 51153901403 scores 5/10, higher than the parent city of Bull Run at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bull Run; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bull Run
Top eight tracts in Bull Run ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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