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Neighborhood · Ranked #48,083 of 84,120 nationally

Crestwood Village Eviction Risk: Lower , Bull Run

Tract 51153901403 · Prince William County, VA · pop 7,258 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

The Crestwood Village neighborhood of Bull Run anchors census tract 51153901403, which lands at 5.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 63% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

About 51% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 26% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,902 monthly, set against $83,986 in average yearly household income, roughly 27% of income at the averages. About 64% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
3.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 32% Stable renters 32% Owners 36%
Tract context
Occupied units2,870
Renter share64.0%
SVI overall0.80
Poverty rate14.2%
Median income$83,986

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Crestwood Village
Moderate
Within parent city
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 4 tracts In Bull Run
Elevated
Within county
98 th percentile
Rank, 98th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Very High
Within state
66 th percentile
Rank, 66th percentileLowHigh
#744 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Bull Run and the region

Centroid at 38.7707, -77.5183 · click any tract to drill in

Why Crestwood Village scores 3.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Bull Run
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
14.2% poverty · this tract
3.6
Supply constraint
$1,902 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bull Run
2.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bull Run
2.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bull Run
2.7

How Crestwood Village compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Crestwood Village risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.63.6This tracttract 901403Bull Run: 3.53.5Bull Runparent cityCounty: 1.91.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 80

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 103Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 6.18%Avg annual filing rate
  • 6.2%Peak (2016)
  • 103Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Crestwood Village

The heaviest input here is economic stress at 3.6/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Bull Run, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 103 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 6.2% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 6.2% of renter households in 2016.

The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 80th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901403

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901403?

Census tract 51153901403 in the Crestwood Village neighborhood scores 3.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153901403?

Median gross rent is $1,902/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901403?

14.2% of residents in tract 51153901403 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,258.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901403?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 80th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 81th, household 30th, minority 78th, housing 88th.
Q5

Is tract 51153901403 considered part of Crestwood Village?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901403 fall within Crestwood Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901403?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 103 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901403 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.18% of renter households, peaking at 6.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51153901403 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51153901403 compare to Bull Run overall?

Tract 51153901403 scores 3.6/10, right in line with the parent city of Bull Run at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bull Run; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Bull Run

Top eight tracts in Bull Run ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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