Neighborhood · Ranked #38,706 of 84,120 nationally

Crossroads Village Eviction Risk: Moderate , Gainesville

Tract 51153901507 · Prince William County, VA · pop 2,874 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

Tract 51153901507 covers the Crossroads Village area of Gainesville in Virginia. Home to 2,874 residents, it scores 5.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 63% of US census tracts.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 35% of renter households, a high level, and 15% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,561 a month while the average household earns $156,705 a year, roughly 20% of income at the averages. About 12% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

4.9

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 4% Stable renters 8% Owners 88%

Tract context

Occupied units939

Renter share11.6%

SVI overall0.14

Poverty rate6.2%

Median income$156,705

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Gainesville and the region

Centroid at 38.8023, -77.6227 · click any tract to drill in

Why Crossroads Village scores 4.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Gainesville

6.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

6.2% poverty · this tract

1.6

Supply constraint

$2,561 rent vs county FMR

6.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from Gainesville

6.8

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.2

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Gainesville

3.9

Housing court bias

Inherited from Gainesville

4.8

How Crossroads Village compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 14

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

14%Socioeconomic
51%Household composition
64%Racial/ethnic minority
6%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

12Total filings over 1 yrs
5.41%Avg annual filing rate
5.4%Peak (2016)
12Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

10.2%Housing insecurity
6.2%Utility-shutoff threat
11.1%Food insecurity
7.7%SNAP enrollment
6.4%Transit barriers
8.4%No health insurance
16.0%Frequent mental distress
25.2%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Crossroads Village

The score leans hardest on rent-control risk at 6.8/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Gainesville, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 10.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 14th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901507

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901507?

Census tract 51153901507 in the Crossroads Village neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153901507?

Median gross rent is $2,561/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901507?

6.2% of residents in tract 51153901507 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,874.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901507?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 14th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 14th, household 51th, minority 64th, housing 6th.

Is tract 51153901507 considered part of Crossroads Village?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901507 fall within Crossroads Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901507?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 12 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901507 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.41% of renter households, peaking at 5.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153901507 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153901507 compare to Gainesville overall?

Tract 51153901507 scores 4.9/10, lower than the parent city of Gainesville at 5.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Gainesville; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Gainesville

Top eight tracts in Gainesville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.