Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Crossroads Village Eviction Risk: Lower , Gainesville
Tract 51153901507 · Prince William County, VA · pop 2,874 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
51153901507 is a census tract in the Crossroads Village area of Gainesville, VA. It scores 3.4/10 for landlords. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 88%
Tract context
Occupied units939
Renter share11.6%
SVI overall0.14
Poverty rate6.2%
Median income$156,705
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
39
th percentile
Low
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Gainesville and the region
Centroid at 38.8023, -77.6227 · click any tract to drill in
Why Crossroads Village scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Gainesville
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.2% poverty · this tract
1.6
Supply constraint
$2,561 rent vs county FMR
6.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Gainesville
6.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Gainesville
3.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Gainesville
4.8
How Crossroads Village compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 14
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 14%Socioeconomic
- 51%Household composition
- 64%Racial/ethnic minority
- 6%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 12Total filings over 1 yrs
- 5.41%Avg annual filing rate
- 5.4%Peak (2016)
- 12Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.2%Housing insecurity
- 6.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.1%Food insecurity
- 7.7%SNAP enrollment
- 6.4%Transit barriers
- 8.4%No health insurance
- 16.0%Frequent mental distress
- 25.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Crossroads Village
Running cool, economic stress reads 1.6/10. Cost burden runs roughly one in three here against 43.3% across Prince William County. 15% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
The filing record is not thin: 12 evictions over 1 years of observation. SNAP participation runs 7.7% against 15.2% nationally.
It sits 0.7 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1. Average gross rent is $2,561, 12% above the Gainesville average.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 5.4% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 5.4% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 29% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 12% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
Social vulnerability reads 2.3/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 0.8 points cooler. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.
Annual rent works out to 20% of average household income of $156,705.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901507
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901507?
Census tract 51153901507 in the Crossroads Village neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901507?
Median gross rent is $2,561/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901507?
6.2% of residents in tract 51153901507 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,874.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901507?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 14th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 14th, household 51th, minority 64th, housing 6th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901507 considered part of Crossroads Village?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901507 fall within Crossroads Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901507?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 12 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901507 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.41% of renter households, peaking at 5.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901507 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901507 compare to Gainesville overall?
Tract 51153901507 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Gainesville at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Gainesville; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Gainesville
Top eight tracts in Gainesville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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