Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #83,884 of 84,120 nationally
Bells Hill Terrace Eviction Risk: Lower , Stafford Courthouse
Tract 51179010210 · Stafford County, VA · pop 9,816 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
How risky is Bells Hill Terrace in Stafford Courthouse for landlords? Census tract 51179010210 scores 5.2/10, the Moderate tier. It lands near the 44th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 30% of renter households, a high level, and 18% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,973 a month against an average household income of $170,165 a year, roughly 14% of income at the averages. About 21% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 80%
Tract context
Occupied units3,574
Renter share20.8%
SVI overall0.22
Poverty rate1.1%
Median income$170,165
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
3
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
4
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Stafford Courthouse and the region
Centroid at 38.4381, -77.4259 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bells Hill Terrace scores 1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Stafford Courthouse
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,973 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Stafford Courthouse
4.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Stafford Courthouse
9.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Stafford Courthouse
3.4
How Bells Hill Terrace compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 22
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 11%Socioeconomic
- 36%Household composition
- 74%Racial/ethnic minority
- 29%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 280Total filings over 2 yrs
- 14.65%Avg annual filing rate
- 16.6%Peak (2016)
- 173Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.9%Housing insecurity
- 6.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.6%Food insecurity
- 7.5%SNAP enrollment
- 6.5%Transit barriers
- 7.2%No health insurance
- 15.9%Frequent mental distress
- 22.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bells Hill Terrace
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 9.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Stafford Courthouse, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Stafford County average of 5.4 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 280 eviction filings here over 2 tracked years, with about 14.6% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 16.6% of renter households in 2016.
The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 22nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51179010210
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010210?
Census tract 51179010210 in the Bells Hill Terrace neighborhood scores 1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51179010210?
Median gross rent is $1,973/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010210?
1.1% of residents in tract 51179010210 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 9,816.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010210?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 22th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 11th, household 36th, minority 74th, housing 29th.
Q5
Is tract 51179010210 considered part of Bells Hill Terrace?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51179010210 fall within Bells Hill Terrace (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51179010210?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 280 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51179010210 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.65% of renter households, peaking at 16.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51179010210 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51179010210 compare to Stafford Courthouse overall?
Tract 51179010210 scores 1/10, lower than the parent city of Stafford Courthouse at 3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Stafford Courthouse; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Stafford Courthouse
Top eight tracts in Stafford Courthouse ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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