Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Census Tract · Ranked #50,654 of 84,120 nationally
Stafford Courthouse Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 51179010106 · Stafford County, VA · pop 3,758 · 20% of tract blocks fall in Stafford Courthouse
51179010106 is a census tract in Stafford Courthouse, VA. It scores 3.9/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,758. What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9.3/10.
Risk score
3.9
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 74%
Tract context
Occupied units1,345
Renter share26.4%
SVI overall0.18
Poverty rate0.8%
Median income$159,583
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
26
th percentile
Low
Within state
49
th percentile
Moderate
National
40
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Stafford Courthouse and the region
Centroid at 38.3790, -77.3641 · click any tract to drill in
Why Stafford Courthouse scores 3.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Stafford Courthouse
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,183 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Stafford Courthouse
4.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Stafford Courthouse
9.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Stafford Courthouse
3.4
How Stafford Courthouse compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 18
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 13%Socioeconomic
- 11%Household composition
- 42%Racial/ethnic minority
- 46%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 21Total filings over 2 yrs
- 6.44%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.1%Peak (2016)
- 11Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.4%Housing insecurity
- 5.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.6%Food insecurity
- 5.8%SNAP enrollment
- 5.4%Transit barriers
- 6.9%No health insurance
- 15.2%Frequent mental distress
- 25.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Stafford Courthouse
On the high side, court filing pressure reads 9.1/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10.
The severe-burden share is 12%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. SNAP participation runs 5.8% against 15.2% nationally.
Food insecurity runs 8.6% against 17.8% nationally. The filing record is not thin: 21 evictions over 2 years of observation. It sits 0.6 points below the Stafford County average of 4.5.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 4.1% of renter households. In a typical year about 6.4% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 40% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Against average income of $159,583, annual rent is just 16%. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 1%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51179010106
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010106?
Census tract 51179010106 in Stafford Courthouse scores 3.9/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51179010106?
Median gross rent is $2,183/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010106?
0.8% of residents in tract 51179010106 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,758.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010106?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 18th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 13th, household 11th, minority 42th, housing 46th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51179010106?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 21 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51179010106 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.44% of renter households, peaking at 4.1% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 51179010106 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51179010106 compare to Stafford Courthouse overall?
Tract 51179010106 scores 3.9/10, lower than the parent city of Stafford Courthouse at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Stafford Courthouse; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Stafford Courthouse
Top eight tracts in Stafford Courthouse ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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