Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #83,884 of 84,120 nationally
Embrey Mill Eviction Risk: Lower , Stafford Courthouse
Tract 51179010218 · Stafford County, VA · pop 4,393 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
For landlords sizing up the Embrey Mill area of Stafford Courthouse, census tract 51179010218 carries an elevated eviction-risk score of $1/10. It lands near the 73rd percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 65% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 65% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,816 a month against an average household income of $170,357 a year, roughly 20% of income at the averages. Renters make up 4% of occupied homes.
Risk score
1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3%
Stable renters 1%
Owners 96%
Tract context
Occupied units1,018
Renter share4.2%
SVI overall0.32
Poverty rate1.2%
Median income$170,357
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
4
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Stafford Courthouse and the region
Centroid at 38.4093, -77.4486 · click any tract to drill in
Why Embrey Mill scores 1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Stafford Courthouse
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,816 rent vs county FMR
7.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Stafford Courthouse
4.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Stafford Courthouse
9.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Stafford Courthouse
3.4
How Embrey Mill compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 32
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 19%Socioeconomic
- 35%Household composition
- 58%Racial/ethnic minority
- 51%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.9%Housing insecurity
- 7.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.6%Food insecurity
- 10.1%SNAP enrollment
- 8.0%Transit barriers
- 10.0%No health insurance
- 17.5%Frequent mental distress
- 26.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Embrey Mill
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 9.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Stafford Courthouse, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Stafford County average of 5.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 12.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 32nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51179010218
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010218?
Census tract 51179010218 in the Embrey Mill neighborhood scores 1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51179010218?
Median gross rent is $2,816/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010218?
1.2% of residents in tract 51179010218 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,393.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010218?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 32th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 19th, household 35th, minority 58th, housing 51th.
Q5
Is tract 51179010218 considered part of Embrey Mill?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51179010218 fall within Embrey Mill (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51179010218 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51179010218 compare to Stafford Courthouse overall?
Tract 51179010218 scores 1/10, lower than the parent city of Stafford Courthouse at 3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Stafford Courthouse; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Stafford Courthouse
Top eight tracts in Stafford Courthouse ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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