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Neighborhood · Ranked #52,479 of 84,120 nationally

Embrey Mill Eviction Risk: Lower , Stafford Courthouse

Tract 51179010218 · Stafford County, VA · pop 4,393 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi

51179010218 is a census tract in the Embrey Mill area of Stafford Courthouse, VA. It scores 3.8/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,393 residents. The severe-burden share is 65%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
3.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3% Stable renters 1% Owners 96%
Tract context
Occupied units1,018
Renter share4.2%
SVI overall0.32
Poverty rate1.2%
Median income$170,357

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Embrey Mill
Moderate
Within parent city
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 4 tracts In Stafford Courthouse
Very Low
Within county
23 th percentile
Rank, 23rd percentileLowHigh
#25 of 32 tracts In Stafford County
Low
Within state
45 th percentile
Rank, 45th percentileLowHigh
#1,203 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Stafford Courthouse and the region

Centroid at 38.4093, -77.4486 · click any tract to drill in

Why Embrey Mill scores 3.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Stafford Courthouse
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,816 rent vs county FMR
7.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Stafford Courthouse
4.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Stafford Courthouse
9.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Stafford Courthouse
3.4

How Embrey Mill compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Embrey Mill risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.8This tracttract 0102184.4Stafford Courthousparent city4.5Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 32

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Embrey Mill

Cost burden runs 65% here against 41.0% across Stafford County. The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 9.3/10.

Running hot, court filing pressure reads 9.1/10. Average gross rent is $2,816, 32% above the Stafford Courthouse average.

Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10. The voucher gap is 21.7%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

Against the Stafford County average of 4.5, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.7 points. Nationally it ranks #52,479 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. At 4% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

Social vulnerability reads 3.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.

Poverty sits at 1%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Annual rent works out to 20% of average household income of $170,357.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51179010218

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010218?

Census tract 51179010218 in the Embrey Mill neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51179010218?

Median gross rent is $2,816/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010218?

1.2% of residents in tract 51179010218 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,393.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010218?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 32th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 19th, household 35th, minority 58th, housing 51th.
Q5

Is tract 51179010218 considered part of Embrey Mill?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51179010218 fall within Embrey Mill (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51179010218 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51179010218 compare to Stafford Courthouse overall?

Tract 51179010218 scores 3.8/10, lower than the parent city of Stafford Courthouse at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Stafford Courthouse; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Stafford Courthouse

Top eight tracts in Stafford Courthouse ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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