Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Census Tract · Ranked #20,506 of 84,120 nationally
Southern Gateway Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 51179010305 · Stafford County, VA · pop 6,814 · 4% of tract blocks fall in Southern Gateway
Census tract 51179010305 covers part of Southern Gateway, VA, and scores 5.8/10 on landlord eviction risk. The severe-burden share is 49%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 23%
Stable renters 7%
Owners 70%
Tract context
Occupied units2,176
Renter share29.4%
SVI overall0.58
Poverty rate6.9%
Median income$131,782
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
94
th percentile
Very High
Within state
92
th percentile
Very High
National
76
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Southern Gateway and the region
Centroid at 38.3985, -77.5097 · click any tract to drill in
Why Southern Gateway scores 5.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Southern Gateway
7.1
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.9% poverty · this tract
1.7
Supply constraint
$1,622 rent vs county FMR
2.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Southern Gateway
6.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Southern Gateway
9.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Southern Gateway
5.1
How Southern Gateway compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 58
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 28%Socioeconomic
- 69%Household composition
- 55%Racial/ethnic minority
- 82%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 535Total filings over 2 yrs
- 40.23%Avg annual filing rate
- 36.7%Peak (2016)
- 271Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.0%Housing insecurity
- 7.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.4%Food insecurity
- 9.6%SNAP enrollment
- 7.3%Transit barriers
- 8.1%No health insurance
- 16.3%Frequent mental distress
- 29.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Southern Gateway
78% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well clear of the Stafford County average of 41.0%. The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 9.7/10.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 9.1/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 1.7/10. Average gross rent is $1,622, 22% below the Southern Gateway average.
Against the Stafford County average of 4.5, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points. Court records carry 535 eviction filings across 2 observed years.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 36.7% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 40.2% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #20,506 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 6.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Rent consumes only 15% of average household income of $131,782, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.6 points hotter.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51179010305
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010305?
Census tract 51179010305 in Southern Gateway scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51179010305?
Median gross rent is $1,622/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 78% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010305?
6.9% of residents in tract 51179010305 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,814.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010305?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 58th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 28th, household 69th, minority 55th, housing 82th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51179010305?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 535 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51179010305 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 40.23% of renter households, peaking at 36.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 51179010305 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51179010305 compare to Southern Gateway overall?
Tract 51179010305 scores 5.8/10, right in line with the parent city of Southern Gateway at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Southern Gateway; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Southern Gateway
Top eight tracts in Southern Gateway ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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