Neighborhood · Ranked #45,786 of 84,120 nationally
Mechanicsville Eviction Risk: Moderate , Danville
Tract 51590000500 ·
Danville city, VA · pop 1,948 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
With a score of 4.2/10, tract 51590000500 in the Mechanicsville area of Danville, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.4/10.
Risk score
4.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 23%Stable renters 55%Owners 22%
Tract context
Occupied units915
Renter share78.6%
SVI overall0.86
Poverty rate22.2%
Median income$48,277
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Mechanicsville
Moderate
Within parent city
40th percentile
#10 of 16 tracts In Danville
Moderate
Within county
40th percentile
#10 of 16 tracts In Danville city
Moderate
Within state
58th percentile
#919 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Danville and the region
Centroid at 36.5820, -79.3874 · click any tract to drill in
Why Mechanicsville scores 4.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Danville
6.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
22.2% poverty · this tract
5.6
Supply constraint
$897 rent vs county FMR
5.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Danville
5.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Danville
9.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Danville
6.9
How Mechanicsville compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 86
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
91%Socioeconomic
33%Household composition
78%Racial/ethnic minority
88%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
21.1%Housing insecurity
15.2%Utility-shutoff threat
28.7%Food insecurity
28.8%SNAP enrollment
14.6%Transit barriers
13.1%No health insurance
19.6%Frequent mental distress
41.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Mechanicsville
Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.2/10. 29% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well below the Danville City average of 42.0%.
79% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. 19% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. SNAP participation runs 28.8% against 15.2% nationally.
The poverty rate is 22%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Food insecurity runs 28.7% against 17.8% nationally.
On the high side, housing-court posture reads 6.9/10. Nationally it ranks #45,786 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.7/10.
Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. It tracks the Danville City average of 4.5 closely.
Average gross rent is $897, close to the Danville average.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51590000500
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51590000500?
Census tract 51590000500 in the Mechanicsville neighborhood scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51590000500?
Median gross rent is $897/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 29% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51590000500?
22.2% of residents in tract 51590000500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,948.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51590000500?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 86th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 91th, household 33th, minority 78th, housing 88th.
Q5
Is tract 51590000500 considered part of Mechanicsville?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51590000500 fall within Mechanicsville (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51590000500 struggle to pay rent?
About 21.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51590000500 compare to Danville overall?
Tract 51590000500 scores 4.2/10, right in line with the parent city of Danville at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Danville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Danville
Top eight tracts in Danville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.