Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #28,095 of 84,120 nationally
Skyline Area Eviction Risk: Moderate , Harrisonburg
Tract 51660000205 · Harrisonburg city, VA · pop 5,756 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
With a score of 5.3/10, tract 51660000205 in the Skyline Area area of Harrisonburg, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 5,756 residents. Severe burden reaches 38%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
5.3
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 37%
Stable renters 32%
Owners 31%
Tract context
Occupied units2,254
Renter share68.8%
SVI overall0.49
Poverty rate33.3%
Median income$62,500
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
90
th percentile
Very High
Within county
90
th percentile
Very High
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Harrisonburg and the region
Centroid at 38.4222, -78.8518 · click any tract to drill in
Why Skyline Area scores 5.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Harrisonburg
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.6
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
33.3% poverty · this tract
8.3
Supply constraint
$1,286 rent vs county FMR
4.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Harrisonburg
2.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Harrisonburg
5.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Harrisonburg
4.5
How Skyline Area compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 49
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 82%Socioeconomic
- 3%Household composition
- 41%Racial/ethnic minority
- 56%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.8%Housing insecurity
- 8.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 17.6%Food insecurity
- 14.7%SNAP enrollment
- 11.3%Transit barriers
- 10.4%No health insurance
- 22.2%Frequent mental distress
- 32.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Skyline Area
Cost burden runs 54% here against 40.7% across Harrisonburg City. The poverty rate is 33%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
The score leans hardest on economic stress at 8.3/10. 69% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 2/10. It sits 1.1 points above the Harrisonburg City average of 4.2.
Average gross rent is $1,286, 9% above the Harrisonburg average. Nationally it ranks #28,095 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 5.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.1 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
Annual rent works out to 25% of average household income of $62,500.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51660000205
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51660000205?
Census tract 51660000205 in the Skyline Area neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51660000205?
Median gross rent is $1,286/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51660000205?
33.3% of residents in tract 51660000205 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,756.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51660000205?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 49th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 82th, household 3th, minority 41th, housing 56th.
Q5
Is tract 51660000205 considered part of Skyline Area?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51660000205 fall within Skyline Area (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51660000205 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51660000205 compare to Harrisonburg overall?
Tract 51660000205 scores 5.3/10, higher than the parent city of Harrisonburg at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Harrisonburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Harrisonburg
Top eight tracts in Harrisonburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Ridge Area
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Preston Heights
4.7
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Preston Heights
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Ridge Area
4.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Park View
4.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Park View
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
51660000203
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Ridge Area
3.4
/ 10 · Low
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