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Neighborhood · Ranked #21,564 of 84,120 nationally

Ridge Area Eviction Risk: Moderate , Harrisonburg

Tract 51660000207 · Harrisonburg city, VA · pop 6,101 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

51660000207 is a census tract in the Ridge Area area of Harrisonburg, VA. It scores 5.7/10 for landlords. It is home to 6,101 residents. The severe-burden share is 51%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 62% Stable renters 32% Owners 6%
Tract context
Occupied units1,677
Renter share94.6%
SVI overall0.73
Poverty rate68.2%
Median income$30,417

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Ridge Area
Very High
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 11 tracts In Harrisonburg
Very High
Within county
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 11 tracts In Harrisonburg city
Very High
Within state
91 th percentile
Rank, 91st percentileLowHigh
#188 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Harrisonburg and the region

Centroid at 38.4266, -78.8679 · click any tract to drill in

Why Ridge Area scores 5.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Harrisonburg
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.6
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
68.2% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$1,262 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Harrisonburg
2.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Harrisonburg
5.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Harrisonburg
4.5

How Ridge Area compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Ridge Area risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.7This tracttract 0002074.3Harrisonburgparent city4.3Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 73

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Ridge Area. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Ridge Area

Cost burden runs 66% here against 40.7% across Harrisonburg City. What pushes it up most is economic stress at 10/10. Annualized rent equals 50% of average household income of $30,417, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

The poverty rate is 68%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. This is renter territory: 95% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 2/10. Against the Harrisonburg City average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.5 points. Housing insecurity runs 21.2% against 14.2% nationally.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 16.2% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. On the national scale it lands near the 74th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.6/10.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51660000207

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51660000207?

Census tract 51660000207 in the Ridge Area neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51660000207?

Median gross rent is $1,262/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 66% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51660000207?

68.2% of residents in tract 51660000207 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,101.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51660000207?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 73th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 92th, household 10th, minority 48th, housing 79th.
Q5

Is tract 51660000207 considered part of Ridge Area?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51660000207 fall within Ridge Area (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51660000207 struggle to pay rent?

About 21.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 16.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51660000207 compare to Harrisonburg overall?

Tract 51660000207 scores 5.7/10, higher than the parent city of Harrisonburg at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Harrisonburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Harrisonburg

Top eight tracts in Harrisonburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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