Within parent city
30
th percentile
Low
Census Tract · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally
Harrisonburg Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 51660000203 · Harrisonburg city, VA · pop 1,580
51660000203 is a census tract in Harrisonburg, VA. It scores 4/10 for landlords. Population here is 1,580. 23% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 23%
Stable renters 29%
Owners 48%
Tract context
Occupied units630
Renter share52.2%
SVI overall0.13
Poverty rate21.7%
Median income$79,500
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
30
th percentile
Low
Within state
53
th percentile
Moderate
National
42
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Harrisonburg and the region
Centroid at 38.4076, -78.8975 · click any tract to drill in
Why Harrisonburg scores 4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Harrisonburg
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.6
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
21.7% poverty · this tract
5.4
Supply constraint
$1,378 rent vs county FMR
4.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Harrisonburg
2.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Harrisonburg
5.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Harrisonburg
4.5
How Harrisonburg compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 13
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 54%Socioeconomic
- 3%Household composition
- 35%Racial/ethnic minority
- 8%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.6%Housing insecurity
- 6.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.4%Food insecurity
- 10.5%SNAP enrollment
- 8.6%Transit barriers
- 9.4%No health insurance
- 19.5%Frequent mental distress
- 30.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Harrisonburg
The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 2/10. The poverty rate is 22%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
Average gross rent is $1,378, 16% above the Harrisonburg average. Nationally it ranks #48,956 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. The legal-climate inputs (statute speed, court posture, rent-regulation exposure) come from Harrisonburg eviction risk as a whole. Only the economic and supply signals are measured inside this tract.
Social vulnerability reads 2.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
Rent takes 30% or more of income for 44% of renters. It tracks the Harrisonburg City average of 4.2 closely.
Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $79,500. 52% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51660000203
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51660000203?
Census tract 51660000203 in Harrisonburg scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51660000203?
Median gross rent is $1,378/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51660000203?
21.7% of residents in tract 51660000203 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,580.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51660000203?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 13th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 54th, household 3th, minority 35th, housing 8th.
Q5
What share of households in tract 51660000203 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6
How does tract 51660000203 compare to Harrisonburg overall?
Tract 51660000203 scores 4/10, lower than the parent city of Harrisonburg at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Harrisonburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Harrisonburg
Top eight tracts in Harrisonburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Ridge Area
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Skyline Area
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Preston Heights
4.7
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Preston Heights
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Park View
4.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Ridge Area
4.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Park View
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Ridge Area
3.4
/ 10 · Low
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