Census Tract · Ranked #26,446 of 84,120 nationally

Harrisonburg Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 51660000203 · Harrisonburg city, VA · pop 1,580

In Harrisonburg, census tract 51660000203 scores 5.2/10 for eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 44% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 44% of renter households, a severe level, and 23% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,378 monthly, set against $79,500 in average yearly household income, roughly 21% of income at the averages. Renters make up 52% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

4.9

Moderate

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 23% Stable renters 29% Owners 48%

Tract context

Occupied units630

Renter share52.2%

SVI overall0.13

Poverty rate21.7%

Median income$79,500

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Harrisonburg and the region

Centroid at 38.4076, -78.8975 · click any tract to drill in

Why Harrisonburg scores 4.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Harrisonburg

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.6

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

21.7% poverty · this tract

5.4

Supply constraint

$1,378 rent vs county FMR

4.9

Rent control risk

Inherited from Harrisonburg

2.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

4.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Harrisonburg

5.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Harrisonburg

4.5

How Harrisonburg compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 13

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

54%Socioeconomic
3%Household composition
35%Racial/ethnic minority
8%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

10.6%Housing insecurity
6.8%Utility-shutoff threat
13.4%Food insecurity
10.5%SNAP enrollment
8.6%Transit barriers
9.4%No health insurance
19.5%Frequent mental distress
30.3%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Harrisonburg

What moves this score most is economic stress at 5.4/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Harrisonburg eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Harrisonburg City County average of 5.0 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 13th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 10.6% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51660000203

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51660000203?

Census tract 51660000203 in Harrisonburg scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51660000203?

Median gross rent is $1,378/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51660000203?

21.7% of residents in tract 51660000203 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,580.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51660000203?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 13th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 54th, household 3th, minority 35th, housing 8th.

What share of households in tract 51660000203 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51660000203 compare to Harrisonburg overall?

Tract 51660000203 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Harrisonburg at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Harrisonburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Harrisonburg

Top eight tracts in Harrisonburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.