Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #56,048 of 84,120 nationally
Elmhurst Eviction Risk: Lower , Norfolk
Tract 51710005902 · Norfolk city, VA · pop 3,849 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
With a score of 3.6/10, tract 51710005902 in the Elmhurst area of Norfolk, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,849 residents. 61% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Norfolk City average of 50.4%.
Risk score
3.6
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 61%
Tract context
Occupied units1,439
Renter share39.6%
SVI overall0.63
Poverty rate12.3%
Median income$68,140
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
38
th percentile
Low
Within county
37
th percentile
Low
Within state
37
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Norfolk and the region
Centroid at 36.8862, -76.2277 · click any tract to drill in
Why Elmhurst scores 3.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Norfolk
6.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
12.3% poverty · this tract
3.1
Supply constraint
$1,152 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Norfolk
2.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Norfolk
5.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Norfolk
5.0
How Elmhurst compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 63
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 72%Socioeconomic
- 65%Household composition
- 78%Racial/ethnic minority
- 27%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 1%Grade C
- 49%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 888Total filings over 2 yrs
- 77.41%Avg annual filing rate
- 87.6%Peak (2011)
- 339Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 17.3%Housing insecurity
- 11.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 21.3%Food insecurity
- 18.8%SNAP enrollment
- 11.6%Transit barriers
- 11.5%No health insurance
- 19.1%Frequent mental distress
- 34.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Elmhurst
Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1.8/10. On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 2/10. 10% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Running hot, regional political climate reads 7.3/10. Court records carry 888 eviction filings across 2 observed years. At $1,152 a month, rents run 13% under what the rest of Norfolk commands.
The worst year on record was 2011, when 87.6% of renter households were served. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.
In a typical year about 77.4% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 33% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.6/10. It tracks the Norfolk City average of 4.1 closely.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51710005902
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51710005902?
Census tract 51710005902 in the Elmhurst neighborhood scores 3.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51710005902?
Median gross rent is $1,152/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51710005902?
12.3% of residents in tract 51710005902 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,849.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51710005902?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 63th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 72th, household 65th, minority 78th, housing 27th.
Q5
Is tract 51710005902 considered part of Elmhurst?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51710005902 fall within Elmhurst (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51710005902?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 888 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51710005902 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 77.41% of renter households, peaking at 87.6% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51710005902 struggle to pay rent?
About 17.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51710005902 compare to Norfolk overall?
Tract 51710005902 scores 3.6/10, lower than the parent city of Norfolk at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Norfolk eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51710005902 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 49% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Norfolk
Top eight tracts in Norfolk ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Miller Heights
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Edgewater
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Huntersville
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Colonial Place
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Brambleton
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Brambleton
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Ballentine Place
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Willard Park
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
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