Neighborhood · Ranked #21,564 of 84,120 nationally

Carver Eviction Risk: Moderate , Richmond

Tract 51760040201 · Richmond city, VA · pop 2,182 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

51760040201 is a census tract in the Carver area of Richmond, VA. It scores 5.7/10 for landlords. Population here is 2,182. The severe-burden share is 57%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

5.7

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 56% Stable renters 19% Owners 25%

Tract context

Occupied units679

Renter share74.7%

SVI overall0.67

Poverty rate44.5%

Median income$41,450

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Richmond and the region

Centroid at 37.5534, -77.4493 · click any tract to drill in

Why Carver scores 5.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Richmond

7.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

44.5% poverty · this tract

10.0

Supply constraint

$1,611 rent vs county FMR

4.4

Rent control risk

Inherited from Richmond

2.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Richmond

6.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Richmond

5.0

How Carver compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 67

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

95%Socioeconomic
0%Household composition
74%Racial/ethnic minority
87%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
0%Grade C
57%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Carver. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

20.8%Housing insecurity
14.7%Utility-shutoff threat
29.3%Food insecurity
26.8%SNAP enrollment
19.3%Transit barriers
11.6%No health insurance
26.7%Frequent mental distress
39.0%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Carver

Against Richmond City at 50.2%, 75% of renters here are cost-burdened. The dominant input is economic stress at 10/10. The poverty rate is 44%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

On the high side, court filing pressure reads 9.8/10. Annualized rent equals 47% of average household income of $41,450, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

This is renter territory: 75% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.4/10. Against the Richmond City average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.4 points.

SNAP participation runs 26.8% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 29.3% against 17.8% nationally.

At $1,611 a month, rents run 17% over what the rest of Richmond commands. This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Richmond. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51760040201

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51760040201?

Census tract 51760040201 in the Carver neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51760040201?

Median gross rent is $1,611/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 75% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51760040201?

44.5% of residents in tract 51760040201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,182.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51760040201?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 67th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 95th, household 0th, minority 74th, housing 87th.

Is tract 51760040201 considered part of Carver?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51760040201 fall within Carver (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51760040201 struggle to pay rent?

About 20.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51760040201 compare to Richmond overall?

Tract 51760040201 scores 5.7/10, higher than the parent city of Richmond at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Richmond eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 51760040201 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 57% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Richmond

Top eight tracts in Richmond ranked by composite eviction-risk score.