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Neighborhood · Ranked #11,930 of 84,120 nationally

Carver Eviction Risk: Elevated , Richmond

Tract 51760040201 · Richmond city, VA · pop 2,182 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

How risky is the Carver area of Richmond for landlords? Census tract 51760040201 scores 7.3/10, the Elevated tier. It lands near the 97th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 75% of renter households, a severe level, and 57% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,611 a month while the average household earns $41,450 a year, roughly 47% of income at the averages. Renters make up 75% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
6
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 56% Stable renters 19% Owners 25%
Tract context
Occupied units679
Renter share74.7%
SVI overall0.67
Poverty rate44.5%
Median income$41,450

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Carver
Very Low
Within parent city
84 th percentile
Rank, 84th percentileLowHigh
#13 of 75 tracts In Richmond
High
Within county
84 th percentile
Rank, 84th percentileLowHigh
#13 of 75 tracts In Richmond city
High
Within state
97 th percentile
Rank, 97th percentileLowHigh
#58 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Richmond and the region

Centroid at 37.5534, -77.4493 · click any tract to drill in

Why Carver scores 6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Richmond
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
44.5% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$1,611 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Richmond
2.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Richmond
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Richmond
5.0

How Carver compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Carver risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.06.0This tracttract 040201Richmond: 4.74.7Richmondparent cityCounty: 4.64.6Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 67

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Carver. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Carver

What moves this score most is economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Richmond eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Richmond City County average of 6.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 20.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 14.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is Black and White and ranks around the 67th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51760040201

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51760040201?

Census tract 51760040201 in the Carver neighborhood scores 6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51760040201?

Median gross rent is $1,611/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 75% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51760040201?

44.5% of residents in tract 51760040201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,182.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51760040201?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 67th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 95th, household 0th, minority 74th, housing 87th.
Q5

Is tract 51760040201 considered part of Carver?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51760040201 fall within Carver (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51760040201 struggle to pay rent?

About 20.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51760040201 compare to Richmond overall?

Tract 51760040201 scores 6/10, higher than the parent city of Richmond at 4.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Richmond eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 51760040201 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 57% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Richmond

Top eight tracts in Richmond ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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